Saudi Crown Prince's visit to US: Israel-Palestine conflict, defence, and economy in focus

Washington, DC — When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrives in the US capital on Tuesday for a meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House, it will mark his first US visit since 2018 and occurs amidst a reset in US-Saudi ties and a shaky truce in besieged Gaza.

The Crown Prince's visit — expected to cover a mix of economic, security, and geopolitical topics — builds on US President Donald Trump's May 2025 trip to Saudi Arabia during which he secured notable defence and tech deals.

The leaders of the world's largest economy and a major oil producer share a strong rapport.

However, despite the cordiality, tensions persist over several issues, including security, access to AI chips, nuclear technology, F-35 fighter jets, the future of Palestine, Gaza truce, and the complex matter of relations with Israel.

Trump has reportedly urged the Crown Prince, widely known as MBS, to enter the so-called Abraham Accords — that normalised Israel's ties with UAE, Bahrain and Morocco — in response to US brokering a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza under Trump's 20-point peace plan.

Reports suggest Trump made the demand in a call with MBS following last month's Gaza peace summit in Egypt.

Trump, who initiated the Abraham Accords in 2020, told reporters recently that "we have a lot of people joining now the Abraham Accords, and hopefully we are going to get Saudi Arabia very soon."

According to former US Ambassador Barbara A. Leaf, Saudi Crown Prince agreeing to normalise relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords is highly unlikely.

"This is premature, given the state of Gaza, the fragile nature of the ceasefire, and the fact that the requirements have not been settled for movement from Phase I to Phase II," Ambassador Leaf, an Assistant Secretary of State during Biden administration and now senior international policy advisor at Washington-based law firm Arnold and Porter, told TRT World in an exclusive interview.

"Moreover, the Crown Prince has made it clear — most recently through Saudi officials speaking publicly at the IISS Manama Dialogue — that above all he requires a clear pathway defined for a Palestinian state," she said, referring to the recent remarks of a top Saudi official in Bahrain.

"A Palestinian state is a prerequisite for regional integration," Manal Radwan, who heads the negotiating team at the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasised recently at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.

"We have said it many times, and I don't think that we have received a full understanding, because we keep being asked this question. And I say it here one more time: the realisation of a Palestinian state is the prerequisite for regional integration," Radwan said.

US pledge on pathway to Palestinian statehood

Israel's war on Gaza that Palestinian officials say left around 70,000 Palestinians dead (a figure experts believe to be an undercount) nearly 170,000 wounded and millions uprooted, has been suspended since October 10, when the phased ceasefire came into effect.

However, the ceasefire has been breached almost daily by Israeli troops, resulting in the deaths of nearly 300 Palestinians and injuries to hundreds more, according to Palestinian officials.

Phase one of the truce deal, based on 20-point plan, includes the release of Israeli captives in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. The plan also envisages the rebuilding of Gaza and the establishment of a new governing mechanism without Hamas.

The plan includes the establishment of an international stabilisation force (ISF) with Arab and international partners to help provide security, train a new Palestinian police force, and oversee the demilitarisation and withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

The US is trying to secure a United Nations mandate for the ISF in Gaza but it has faced resistance from Russia, China and several Arab countries, who have raised concerns over the structure of the post-war governing mechanism, the yet-to-be-established "Board of Peace", and the absence of any transitional role for the Palestinian Authority.

Riyadh stipulates a Palestinian state's creation as a prerequisite for establishing diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right ministers oppose the two-state solution and the establishment of an independent Palestine.

The visit would offer an opportunity for MBS to seek a clear pledge from President Trump regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state.

"The quest for US leadership in helping define a pathway to Palestinian statehood will undoubtedly feature as an important item on the agenda for the Crown Prince, but I am doubtful a clear pledge will be secured," Ambassador Leaf said.

"Moreover, there are the immediate and more pressing issues of securing the arrangements for bolstered humanitarian aid to Gazans, agreement on governance and security as first critical steps."

Security pact

Beyond the talks over Abraham Accords, a major push is under way to finalise a US-Saudi defence pact, which would provide Saudi Arabia with non-binding US security guarantees similar to those extended to Qatar via an executive order.

Saudi Arabia is also seeking a large weapons package, potentially including dozens of F-35 fighter jets, building on a Pentagon approval earlier in 2025. The Pentagon is considering a possible sale of 48 advanced aircraft, as reported by Reuters news agency.

Negotiations have involved high-level Saudi officials meeting with US counterparts like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. 

But Saudi Arabia, which recently signed a defence pact with Pakistan that states "any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both", would be seeking a similar agreement or a NATO-style defence pact with US.

That pact followed Israel's unprecedented attack on Qatar during the Gaza war, for which Israeli PM Netanyahu later apologised from the White House.

Doha later inked an upgraded defence deal with US stipulating that "the United States shall take all lawful and appropriate measures — including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military — to defend the interests of the United States and the State of Qatar and to restore peace and stability."

"There is clearly a felt urgency on the Saudi side for clarifying US security commitments, but a NATO-style agreement would require a Senate vote, which seems unlikely in the near term," Ambassador Leaf noted.

"However, there is certainly room for the Saudi government to achieve a commitment by the Trump administration similar to what President Trump provided Qatar recently. That may not have the legal force of a treaty but would be an important political signal."

On Wednesday, Rubio indicated Washington and Riyadh are set to sign several agreements during MBS’ visit, but did not specify the details.

"We'll have some good agreements to sign with them ... I feel good about where it's at. There's still a few things that need to be tightened up and finalised, and we're going to have a good meeting next week," he told reporters.

AI and investment summit

During the Crown Prince's visit, Saudi Arabia is said to be planning to host an investment summit in the US capital to advance deals in sectors such as energy, technology (including AI, data centres, and semiconductors), healthcare, and infrastructure.

The summit may unveil over $600 billion in US investments, including $21 billion for data centres and solar power initiatives. President Trump is reportedly planning a lavish dinner for MBS, emphasising commercial partnerships.

Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, in a discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that apart from defence deal, the Saudi Crown Prince would be looking for agreements and "solid assurances" from US on artificial intelligence and technology.

"AI and advanced tech is really kind of at the centre of Saudi’s ambitions to diversify their economy away from a dependence on oil," Ratney said.

Saudi Arabia has significant ambitions and awaits investment from major US firms to develop data centres, he emphasised.

"They want to develop their own artificial intelligence industry, including the intellectual capital that goes into developing it, not just hosting the datacentres. But I think they’re going to want some kind of solid assurances that the US is going to be there as a partner as they develop and invest in their AI programme."