Who, what, how: Bangladesh’s first post-Hasina elections explained in four points

Bangladesh will go to the polls this week for the first time since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina's government in 2024.

This will be the first election in years without Hasina’s Awami League party, which has been barred from participating following the student-led uprising that ended Hasina’s 15-year rule.

The polls come amid hopes for reforms, with voters eager to address issues like corruption and unemployment that plagued the Awami League government.

The 2024 protests, initially sparked by opposition to job quotas, escalated into widespread violence, resulting in over 1,400 deaths, mostly at the hands of security forces.

Hasina, often criticised for her authoritarian tactics against political opponents, resigned on August 5, 2024, and fled to India, where she remains in exile.

Subsequently, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as head of an interim government on August 8, 2024, tasked with restoring order and organising fresh elections.

Under the caretaker setup, Bangladesh has seen efforts to implement reforms, including a July National Charter for constitutional changes, which will be put to a referendum alongside the parliamentary vote later this week.

Analysts view the election as a chance to reset the democratic order after years of alleged rigging and repression under the Awami League.

More than 2,000 candidates will compete for 300 parliamentary seats in February 12 general election. More than 27 percent of the candidates are aged between 25 and 44.

Here’s a quick look at the main political players and the new alliances shaping up in post-Hasina Bangladesh. 

Who are the main players? 

The political arena of today’s Bangladesh is now dominated by three key players: the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the Jamaat-e-Islami, and the emerging National Citizen Party (NCP).

The BNP, led by 60-year-old Tarique Rahman, is widely seen as the frontrunner, capitalising on its historical opposition to Hasina’s rule.

Tarique Rahman – also known as Tarique Zia within Bangladesh – returned from 17 years in exile in December last year, days before the death of his mother, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

Jamaat-e-Islami, under its leader Shafiqur Rahman, has undergone a rebranding, emphasising inclusivity and welfare to appeal to a broader base after being barred from politics for over a decade.

The NCP, born from the 2024 student movements, positions itself as a fresh alternative, focusing on youth-driven change and branding as “pro-Bangladesh”.

Mohammad Arifur Rahman Sibly, a Dhaka-based independent journalist, tells TRT World that the politics of BNP under Tarique Rahman is geared towards a “grassroots-first” model.

“Unlike the ‘monarchical’ style traditionally associated with Bangladeshi leaders, he has focused on internal party democracy and bridging the gap between Dhaka-based elites and village-level workers,” he says.

Sibly says that Tarique Rahman’s 31-point reform outline signals a shift towards institutional stability and a bicameral legislature, with a balance of power between the offices of prime minister and president.

Abul Hasan, an international affairs analyst from Bangladesh currently based at Russia’s National Research University Higher School of Economics, disagrees.

He does not see the BNP’s new leader as the unifying force capable of lifting the nation of 175 million out of its myriad challenges.

“His recent speeches and actions suggest he has adopted a style similar to that of the Awami League in addressing and criticising the opposition, particularly the Jamaat-e-Islami,” Hasan tells TRT World.

He says that Tarique Rahman’s hostility towards political opponents has led to ideological rifts, with the BNP aligning more with leftist groups, raising concerns among religious segments of Bangladeshi society.

As for Shafiqur Rahman of the Jamaat-e-Islami, Sibly points out his “disciplined, ideological leadership” as a sign of a maturing political culture in Bangladesh.

“Under him, Jamaat has attempted to soften its image, speaking of ‘pluralism’ and ‘inclusive governance’ to attract a younger generation disillusioned by traditional politics,” he says.

Both experts agree that these leadership styles signal broader shifts away from personality-driven politics and towards programmatic agendas.

“The public now demands specific reform agendas rather than just charismatic rhetoric,” Sibly says.

What are the hot-button issues? 

Central to the election campaign are socioeconomic problems, with corruption and unemployment emerging as the headline issues.

Massive corruption and money laundering took place under Hasina’s 15-year regime, according to investigations carried out by the Dr Yunus-led interim government.

“Corruption has penetrated every sector across the country. It has been widely admitted, even by foreign experts, that corruption is the primary hindrance to Bangladesh’s development and growth,” Hasan says.

Sibly highlights embezzlement in the garments and health sectors, making anti-corruption a “non-negotiable demand” for legitimacy. 

Unemployment has worsened these woes, with millions of jobless young people. Many of them are “turning to illegal activities” due to insufficient education and opportunities, he adds.

The World Bank has cut its forecast for Bangladesh’s GDP growth to 4.6 percent for the current fiscal year, amid persistent inflation, falling exports and sluggish investment.

Sibly adds that the BNP’s promise to create 10 million jobs within 18 months directly responds to frustrations from the 2024 quota movement.

New alliances versus old rivalries

The exclusion of the Awami League from the electoral process has reshaped electoral alliances and rivalries. 

Hasan describes how initial hopes that political parties would learn from the Awami League's “fascist” tactics have given way to divisions. 

The interim government’s attempts at implementing reforms faced opposition from the BNP, which pushed for early elections, leading to splits between the BNP, the Jamaat-e-Islami, and the NCP.

“While Jamaat, the NCP, and many other parties favoured significant reform of the administrative sectors established by the Awami League, the Dr Yunus-led interim government failed to achieve this, largely due to the reluctance of the BNP,” Hasan says.

Sibly notes the end of the “two-party” era and the emergence of new rivalries.

Conflicts over seat-sharing and constitutional reforms have arisen, but the “voter vacuum” left by former Awami League supporters can act as a swing factor, he adds.

Hasan says BNP’s politics in the run-up to the election have prompted the Jamaat-e-Islami, the NCP, and other conservative parties to form an alliance against the BNP.

“As a result, the (political) landscape has divided into two main blocs: the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance and the BNP-led alliance,” he says.

What lies ahead?

Looking ahead, projections for the next government vary.

Pre-election surveys position the BNP as the largest party, with Tarique Rahman as the primary candidate for leadership.

He has rejected the possibility of a unity government, saying his party was confident of an outright electoral victory.

Meanwhile, Shafiqur Rahman of the Jamaat-e-Islami has expressed willingness to form a unity government.

A recent survey showed 30.2 percent of potential voters planned to base their voting decision on the individual candidate. An almost equal number of respondents reported they would vote in line with their party affiliation. A slightly larger group of potential voters (33.2 percent) said they would consider both the candidate and their party affiliation before casting their votes.

Hasan says the chance of a “yes” vote in the constitutional referendum – which will take place alongside the general election – can give the opposition alliance “significant influence over parliament and governance” in the coming years.

A “yes” vote will give the newly elected parliament the status of a constituent assembly for the first six months to enact major constitutional changes. 

Sibly also foresees a high probability of a coalition government. 

“While the BNP may emerge as the largest party, it faces a challenge from a rising Jamaat-NCP alliance,” he says.