On Wednesday 25 of July, 2018, Pakistanis went to the polls for their eleventh general election in 70 years of statehood. It was also the third election in the last 10 years, and marked the first time the country has seen two democratically-elected legislatures complete their full, five-year terms in succession.

At the time of writing, official confirmation of results from 272 National Assembly seats, and nearly 700 seats across four provincial legislatures was still being awaited. 

A number of administrative delays, including the failure of an electronic results transmission system, meant a delay in results of more than 24 hours after polls closed. 

Headline trends, however, began to emerge by early morning Thursday, which showed the main opposition party, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) taking a commanding lead in over 110 National Assembly seats, setting it on course for a simple majority with the help of independently elected candidates. 

Based on these trends, it is expected that the PTI chairperson, cricketer-turned-politician, Imran Khan, will almost certainly be elected as the next prime minister of Pakistan.

PTI’s electoral upsurge came on the back of a commanding performance in the provinces of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, where it combined strong candidates with intensive campaigning, as well as a surprisingly strong showing in Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi. 

The previous ruling party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), tarnished by the disqualification and conviction of its leader and former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, saw its seat haul from 5 years ago reduce by almost half, and its support curtailed to its stronghold of central Punjab. 

The Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP), which many expected would hold the cards in case of a hung parliament, retained its dominance in the province of Sindh but failed to make headway in any other part of the country. Both parties are now expected to sit on the opposition benches in the National Assembly.

As has often been the case in the past, this election was not without controversy. Opposition parties raised questions about the fairness of the polls after reports emerged that party personnel were being evicted from polling booths during the counting process, and results were being withheld arbitrarily. 

Coupled with the elongated delays in announcing seat-wide results (which still have not been completed), the previous incumbent, PMLN, and at least 5 other major parties raised immediate concerns about the validity of the reported results. 

In the last few months, the PMLN has also raised concerns about ‘pre-poll rigging’ in the shape of the military’s coercive influence during the pre-election phase, which it deemed had skewed the playing field in favour of the PTI.

So far, there has been little evidence presented that would indicate a systematic attempt to compromise the polling process, beyond logistical and technical shortcomings. 

Going forward, the PPP’s secure position in the province of Sindh, means it is expected to form the provincial government, and thus may back-down from its accusations to consolidate its electoral position. 

The PMLN too may yet find itself in a position to form the provincial government in the largest province, Punjab, thus diluting its oppositional stance against the entire exercise. 

In his victory speech a day after the elections, Imran Khan played some role in countering rigging allegations by indicating his willingness to address the opposition’s concerns regarding the fairness of the polling process. Whether this is taken up by the aggrieved parties, or whether they pursue a more agitation-heavy politics on the streets remains to be seen. Their course of action on this issue will play a big role in determining overall political stability in the coming few weeks.

Other than the immediate challenge of developing a consensus over the fairness of the elections, the nature of PTI’s victory and its position in government will be determined by three major factors. 

Firstly, the final shape of the federal and provincial governments will only become clear as results are finalised over the next couple of days. Through his victory speech, Imran Khan has set out his governing agenda which includes a specific focus on poverty reduction, economic revitalisation, normalisation of relations with neighbouring countries, and anti-corruption accountability. 

However, it could yet find its commanding victory at the national level, and its ability to implement this agenda, compromised by a failure to form a sub-national government in the all-important province of Punjab, which the PMLN may end up retaining.

Secondly, the party steps into power at the centre just as the country is on the verge of tackling yet another balance of payment crisis with the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

Conditional reforms accompanying the IMF’s program will likely inhibit economic growth, and reduce government spending in a number of areas. This is also expected to place limits on the ambitious development agenda the party has iterated through its campaign and its election manifesto.

Finally, the perennial question facing a civilian government in Pakistan relates to its relations with the all-powerful military establishment. 

Since at least 2014, the PTI has been perceived as enjoying favourable ties with the military, with the PMLN alleging that it has also benefitted from covert military support during the elections. With the military retaining veto power on a number of national security and foreign policy issues, there is no indication from its campaign or Imran Khan’s speeches that the PTI will attempt to challenge the civil-military imbalance at this stage. 

Nevertheless, each civilian government in the past has run into confrontation over resources and policymaking authority, and the same cannot be ruled out for the PTI over the course of its five-year term.