Russia's Putin to visit China as Beijing, Moscow ties strengthen

Russian President Vladimir Putin heads to China next week to meet Xi Jinping, forging even closer ties in a key relationship that has grown stronger since Moscow sent tanks and troops to Ukraine.

Beijing is hosting representatives of 130 countries on October 17-18 to mark a decade of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - a key geopolitical project of President Xi to extend China's global reach.

The Russian leader's strategic dependence on China has only grown since his invasion of neighbouring Ukraine thrust his country into international isolation.

Putin has hardly ventured beyond his country's borders since the war, with next week's trip the first to a major global power.

This year, bilateral trade between the two nations has surged to unprecedented levels since the onset of Moscow's conflict in Ukraine, with Chinese imports of Russian oil providing a vital economic boost amid the tightening grip of international sanctions.

Bilateral trade reached a record $190 billion last year, according to Chinese customs data, and the two sides have pledged to reach $200 billion this year.

China has refused to condemn the war in an effort to position itself as a neutral party while at the same time offering Moscow a vital diplomatic and financial lifeline.

"Beijing has maintained a posture of 'pro-Russia neutrality' throughout the invasion, providing critical diplomatic, economic, and non-lethal military assistance to Moscow," Joseph Webster, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center, told AFP.

'Unlimited possibilities'

When Xi made a state visit to Moscow in March, Putin hailed the "truly unlimited possibilities" their countries' partnership offered.

In May, the Chinese leader told Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin that Beijing and Moscow would continue to offer each other "firm support on issues concerning each other's core interests".

China has so far offered only "non-lethal" support to Moscow, but experts said Beijing could change tack should Russia's situation worsen.

"China doesn't want to see a significantly weakened Russia, and it might step up its efforts if it comes to realise that Moscow might lose," Alicja Bachulska, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told AFP.

"Putin's regime collapse and related chaos are seen as a serious security threat," she added.

"Beijing might be willing to increase its support for Russia to prevent such a scenario."