Host/Producer: Ezgi Toper
Guest: Luqman Nieto
Craft Editor: Nasrullah Yilmaz
Production Team: Afzal Ahmed, Ahmet Ziya Gumus, Mucteba Samil Olmez, Khaled Selim Executive Producer: Nasra Omar Bwana

TRANSCRIPT

LUQMAN NIETO, GUEST: The right in Brazil has been reorganising.

Is there someone as charismatic as Bolsonaro? Well, some people point to the Sao Paulo mayor, I believe, who is an ally of Bolsonaro. Some people point to one of Bolsonaro's sons, both of them are in politics, but it is not clear. It is not clear yet if they can manage to organise a movement strong enough as Bolsonaro did to have a political opposition to Lula.

EZGI TOPER, HOST: You’re listening to “In the Newsroom”, and I’m Ezgi Toper. In this podcast, we have conversations with colleagues and experts that go beyond the headlines.

Last week on the show, we discussed Brazil as it hosted the COP30 climate talks. This week, the country’s still in the headlines. Former President Jair Bolsonaro begins serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his election defeat in 2022.

The 70-year old leader was found guilty of trying to spark a military uprising to stop the transfer of power to his left-wing rival Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Since August, Bolsonaro had been under house arrest over concerns he might flee the country. Those fears resurfaced after he was found tampering with his ankle monitor, leading to his immediate detention.

In this episode, I speak with Luqman Nieto, Executive Producer at TRT Español, about how this unprecedented conviction came together and what Bolsonaro’s imprisonment means for the country’s political future.

Let's start from the beginning. Who is Jair Bolsonaro and what was he convicted of?

LUQMAN: Jair Bolsonaro is the former president of Brazil. He was president between 2019 and 2022, when he lost the elections against Lula, coming for a second time.

Jair Bolsonaro is usually described as a far right politician. He was a former military captain and he was accused of trying to overthrow Lula, President Lula, by the same token by dismantling Brazil's democracy.

EZGI: And what evidence did the court have that he led this coup attempt? 

LUQMAN: The main evidence is very difficult to pinpoint. Of course, there are leaked messages, there are conversations, there are witnesses that locate Jail Bolsonaro as the leading figure of a coup attempt against Lula.

The whole case is built around discrediting the electoral system, pressuring the institutions and preparing coup-related actions that culminated in the January 8th, 2023 attack on Brasilia.

The alleged broader conspiracy included an assassination plot against Lula, and the evidences are encrypted messages, exchanges between different sides of the military, and different plans that were supposedly uncovered.

EZGI: In 2024, Brazil’s federal police submitted an 884-page report. It included recordings, testimony from co-defendants and documents outlining the alleged plans by Bolsonaro and his allies.

And as Luqman explains, there were even alleged discussions among military officers about poisoning Lula or shooting Justice de Moraes, the judge leading the criminal trial against Bolsonaro.      

What's been the reaction of his supporters?

LUQMAN: The reaction of Bolsonaro's supporters. On the one hand, you have the people on the streets. There were some protests at first. There were some vigils held in front of the courthouse, in front of his house, but nothing really big enough or strong enough to pressure the government.

On the other side, you have the political allies, which the main thing they've been trying to do, led by Bolsonaro's two sons which are both in politics, is to try to arrange a pardon for his supposed crimes. First, they were trying to fight the case in court when that didn't work, and now they're trying to arrange political consensus in Brazil to arrange pardon for Bolsonaro.

EZGI: The investigation into Bolsonaro was triggered after January 8, 2023.

Thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and Presidential Palace in Brasília. The mob was driven by false claims of electoral fraud after Bolsonaro lost to Lula.

They sought to pressure the military into a coup and reinstate Bolsonaro. The incident resulted in mass arrests, injuries, and around $2 million in damages.

It was also widely compared to the January 6 Capitol attack in the US.

LUQMAN: The January 8th riots was a movement, protest movement, led by the far-right in Brazil to try to overthrow the result of the previous elections that gave power to President Lula once again.

They occupied several institutional government buildings but it didn't come to more because the military did not back it. 

There is of course a lot of resemblance because between what happened in Brazil and the US with Trump and it's because the political movement that Jair Bolsonaro leads, which is a coalition of different right and far-right parties, is very aligned to MAGA movement in the United States. It's aligned because they have similar ideologies, it's aligned because they have similar policies, and it's aligned because they have similar interests, common interests between them and in the region, in the general region.

So, it is not a coincidence that these two things happened relatively close in time, relatively in similar circumstances, and relatively intending to do the same thing. Both failed, but Trump came back.

EZGI: Do you think that it's possible that Bolsonaro will come back then?

LUQMAN: It's highly improbable. But it's not impossible because yes, he has been convicted, yes, he's supposed to start his prison sentence, but there is already a movement trying to arrange a pardon for him. And yes, he has been rendered unable to hold political office again but depending on the pardon he could do it again.

And after being convicted, his popularity amongst the right rose.

So, it's highly improbable because the the democratic institutions in Brazil are relatively strong and the consensus against him on the high court was 4 to 1, I believe, so it's unprovable but I wouldn't say it's impossible.

EZGI: And I mean, has anything like this ever happened before in Brazil, a former president being imprisoned for a coup attempt?

LUQMAN: Not for a coup attempt like as far as I know, and I think it's history, that no president has been imprisoned by a coup attempt. But yes, they have been imprisoned by other charges, for example, corruption. Amongst them, Lula.

Lula was imprisoned for more than 500 days, accused of corruption, accused by Bolsonaro.

EZGI: Lula was imprisoned in April 2018 after being convicted of corruption and money laundering. As Luqman previously mentioned, Lula had already served two presidential terms before this.

The case was part of “Operation Car Wash”, a huge anti-corruption investigation. But Lula always insisted the case was politically motivated.

In 2021, Brazil’s Supreme Court agreed that the judge overseeing his trial had been biased and annulled Lula’s convictions. This restored his political rights, allowing him to run for and win the presidency again in 2022.

LUQMAN: Lula's stance is that the justice system in Brazil is fully independent and that he is not at any point trying to influence them or trying to reach a verdict that would necessarily incorporate Bolsonaro if the judicial system does not reach that verdict.

So, the main argument that Lula has had throughout this time — and the main argument in the civil society in Brazil — is that he's not influencing the case, that the judicial system is independent, that an element for a strong democracy is an independent judiciary system, and that he is not involved in the case and that he would accept any verdict that the court will give. 

There are sectors and there are different parties in Brazil who do not see it that way. They believe this case against Bolsonaro is a witch hunt. They believe it is politically motivated. They believe it's almost a revenge of Lula against Bolsonaro. That narrative has somehow hold in the larger population in Brazil but the larger population in Brazil, at least a big part of it, is aligned with Lula. Maybe they're not fully supporting him and support goes and comes back sometimes, but it is aligned with what Lula represents: more human approach to politics. But of course, Bolsonaro's party and supporters would not accept it.

EZGI: Bolsonaro is the highest-profile figure to receive a prison sentence in connection with the coup attempt and related plots, but several people in his inner circle have also been sentenced or charged. 

The key figures include Walter Braga Netto — Bolsonaro’s former defence minister and 2022 running mate — and Anderson Torres — Bolsonaro’s former justice minister and head of Brasília’s public security during the January 8 riots.

LUQMAN: A coup attempt is never a one-man show. It's impossible. If anyone would attempt that, it would be crazy. So, those who have been convicted are some of his ministers and some military chiefs.

They were all accused of having participated in organising the coup in one manner or the other, either because they were military, so they were supposed to gather the military to stand behind Bolsonaro or to lead the protests or to lead certain conspiracies in order to achieve the coup.

EZGI: So I read that Bolsonaro is being held at a federal police headquarters. Why is that?

LUQMAN: So actually, first he was not supposed to be in arrest because the processes in court had not finished yet. There were still appeals going, but the main judge put him under house arrest and put certain limitations to his communications because they believed there was a risk of leaving the country.

So, he was first put into house arrest while the case was going on, but there were some breaches of that house arrest. For example, he was not allowed to have communications with people outside his family or with his supporters, etc. etc. This is the time when Trump actually sent a letter asking Lula and asking the judicial system not to continue the case against Bolsonaro.

Because he was a risk of flying, of leaving the country, of trying to flee the country, he was put under house arrest during the court case. Then, and this was fairly recently, he tried to mess with his electronic bracelet.

EZGI: Mhm, his ankle monitor. 

LUQMAN: His ankle monitor, right. Yes, He alleged that he had taken some medicines and that he had a psychotic breakdown and that he was not aware of what he was trying to do.

However, because of that, before his sentences were supposed to start, he was put in a federal police headquarters. I would think that a person of such a high profile would try to probably leave to the United States if he had a chance, as has happened before, right? 

EZGI: Right so, what is the US's involvement in all of this? Why does Trump care what happens to Bolsonaro?

LUQMAN: It is a regional dynamic. It is not only to do with Brazil per se. Trump and the Trump administration are trying to help those they consider their allies

US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I thought he was a good president of Brazil. And it’s very surprising that that could happen. That’s very much like they tried to do with me, but they didn’t get away with it at all. But I can only say this: I knew him as president of Brazil. He was a good man and I don’t see that happening.

LUQMAN: The US is trying to reshape their relationship with Latin America in general to be more in their current administration interests. So that means, having governments which are more far-right leaning. That are generally more ideologically aligned to the US to the current administration to the US. Also, for example in the case of Argentina, whose economic prospects fit very well into the US broader interests in the region.

In this we cannot forget Venezuela. One of the main reasons why the Trump administration is so adamant against Venezuela is because they stand for something completely different, at least ideologically, to what the US stands for.

And this is Marco Rubio's own words, you know, he said himself, Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua are enemies of humanity, and he's in a declared crusade against communism in Latin America.

So we need to understand, the US support for Brazil in these lines. We cannot forget that Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America. Brazil has a very big commerce with the US, and that the US actually benefits a lot from that.

In the regional aspect, for the US to have a president and a government which is aligned to the US interest in the region in Brazil, which is the largest country and the largest democracy in Latin America in general, is very important.

And Lula has not been willing to subdue Brazil's policies to the interests of the US. That's why they had this conflict over the past few months and the US put huge tariffs in Brazil. I think some, some, some products were 50 percent, some products were threatened at least to be 100 percent, and those tariffs were related to Bolsonaro's case. So, the US was trying to pressure Lula and his government and the judicial system not to pursue the case against Bolsonaro.

EZGI: How do you think his imprisonment will shift the landscape of Brazil's far right and now this vacuum in leadership that it has?

LUQMAN: Bolsonaro's prison sentence, I think, is 27 years and unless his supporters managed to arrange a pardon for him, it's very complicated to think that he would ever be able to run again. Probably, after a few years they will allow him to be in house arrest because of age and so on and so forth…

EZGI: Yeah, I mean the man is 70. In 27 years, he's going to be pushing 100. 

LUQMAN: Yeah, it's very difficult that he would be able he would ever be able to run again, unless something dramatically changes in the landscape, but this was known. I mean this is not like it started today when he's going to prison. This was known at least a couple of years ago that it was very difficult for this to happen. So, the right in Brazil has been organising, reorganising.

Is there someone as charismatic as Bolsonaro? Well, some people point to the Sao Paulo mayor, I believe, who is an ally of Bolsonaro. Some people point to one of Bolsonaro's sons, which both of them are in politics, but it is not clear. It is not clear yet if they can manage to organise a movement strong enough as Bolsonaro did to have a political opposition to Lula, but definitely the region generally is moving towards more right-leaning governments, and that means that there will be regional support for a more right-leaning government.

EZGI: So, looking ahead, what legal precedents does this set for future political justice? I mean, is this strengthening Brazil's democratic system?

LUQMAN: I think this will create in the minds of those who come after the president that it won't be easy to attempt something like this and not be held accountable. But that does not mean that there will not be other forms, other attempts, to overthrow or to change the current system.

EZGI: Well, thank you so much for being on the show Luqman. I really appreciate the insights.

LUQMAN: Pleasure, pleasure, my pleasure. Thank you so much for having me.

EZGI: For now, Bolsonaro will serve his sentence at Federal Police headquarters in Brasília. Outside the facility, his supporters continue to protest, calling the conviction politically motivated.

As Luqman says, we can expect some demonstrations in the coming days but they’re unlikely to change the situation as Brazil’s government remains strong, and the judiciary independent. 

The only real path to altering Bolsonaro’s sentence would be a political pardon, but that would require approval through Congress and the president, a process that could take significant time. Meanwhile, prosecutors maintain that the evidence was overwhelming and that no one, not even a former president, is above the law.

Thanks for tuning in. Until next time, I’m Ezgi Toper, and this was “In the Newsroom”.