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Mideast conflict may trigger price shocks for oil, agri products: World Bank
A worst-case scenario would see oil reach a record high of more than $150 a barrel — potentially exceeding all-time highs not seen since 2008 if the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalates, the World Bank warns.
Mideast conflict may trigger price shocks for oil, agri products: World Bank
The conflict between Israel and Hamas comes as Russia's war in Ukraine has already put pressure on markets, with that war being "the biggest shock to commodity markets since the 1970s." / Photo: AP Archive / AP Archive
October 30, 2023

The conflict between Israel and Hamas could trigger price shocks for raw materials such as oil and agricultural products if the conflict escalates across the Middle East, the World Bank has warned in a report.

Oil has already risen six percent since the latest round of fighting, sparked when the Palestinian group Hamas from Gaza stormed southern Israel, according to Israeli officials.

Israel has responded with an unrelenting bombardment of Gaza, which the Gaza-based health ministry says has killed more than 8,000 people, nearly half of them children.

The conflict between Israel and Hamas comes as Russia's war in Ukraine has already put pressure on markets, with that war being "the biggest shock to commodity markets since the 1970s," warned World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill on Monday.

"That had disruptive effects on the global economy that persist to this day," Gill said in a statement.

"Policymakers will need to be vigilant. If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades" from both the war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East, he said.

Many potential price hikes will depend on what happens to world oil prices and exports, the World Bank said.

In an optimistic scenario, oil could rise 3-13 percent, between $93 and $102 per barrel.

A median scenario envisages prices rising up to $121, while a worst-case scenario would see oil reach a peak of between $140 and $157 — potentially exceeding all-time highs not seen since 2008.

RelatedOil prices rebound amidst Israel's  relentless Gaza attacks
SOURCE:TRTWorld and agencies