Who’s winning the race for hypersonic weapons?

On May 29, Russia announced the successful test-fire of the ‘Zicron’ hypersonic missile, the latest capable addition to its armoury in a close race with the United States and China for weapons that can travel at least five times the speed of sound.

The three countries are locked in a costly race to develop advanced lethal strike capabilities afforded through new military technology. 

Since 2010, the US has carried out 17 hypersonic missile tests, with recorded 10 failures. Nonetheless, the US claims to be at least one year from achieving a combat-ready hypersonic weapon.

Russia and China both claim to have operational hypersonic weapons in their arsenals. 

As the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues, hypersonic weapons are witnessing a resurgence among major powers, promising a long-range rapid-strike capability that cannot be countered using current military defensive platforms.

Russia has stated the ‘Zircon’ hypersonic missile is expected to go into service this year. 

While initial tests indicated that the Zircon had a maximum range of up to 500 kilometres, the latest tests saw it strike a target in the White Sea nearly 1,000 kilometres away.

A missile that can fly five times faster than the speed of sound is considered hypersonic.

The Zircon, allegedly nearing development’s end, is capable of flying at nine times the speed of sound, equivalent to 2.7 to 3.2 kilometres per second.

This poses major concerns to the US, which must already contend with growing gaps in its missile defence capabilities and the erosion of its once uncontested military edge amid rising global competition.

When accounting for other growing advances in stealth technology, electronic warfare as well as manoeuvring and re-entry capabilities, hypersonics are challenging conventional defence thinking given the threat they pose to large, valuable targets.

Addressing the growing gap in its military edge as far back as 2018, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Paul Selva, noted that the US may have “lost [its] technical advantage in hypersonics” but added that “we haven’t lost the hypersonics fight”.

A March 5 report to Congress identifies $4.7 billion allocated to hypersonic research, development and testing for 2023, up from $3.8 billion in 2022 and $2.6 billion in 2020.

Recent years have seen the US focus on two chief forms of hypersonic missiles.

First, hypersonic glide vehicles, which are launched by rocket, before disengaging from a booster, followed by a glide towards the target at terminal velocity with anti-radar manoeuvres. The second, hypersonic cruise missiles, are powered by powerful air-breathing engines, or scramjets activated at high speeds.

For the US, hypersonic weapons offer an offensive option for distant, long-range, time-critical targets inaccessible to or unsuited to regular force. Due to high costs, however, it’s unlikely that hypersonics will replace artillery, relegating them to precision and strategic strikes against high-value targets. 

No longer the sole proponents of hypersonic technology, the US can no longer rely on exclusive access to hypersonic missiles for deterrence.

Increasing proliferation and pursuit of hypersonic technology around the world could see them adopt the easy role of nuclear warhead delivery vehicles, with troubling implications for nuclear non-proliferation. 

Strategic stability takes a hit

With the rapid growth in hypersonic missile technology comes concerns about the technology’s capacity for unintended military escalation.

The weapon’s relatively short flight-time significantly reduces response time, alongside its ability to create unpredictable flight paths. The reduced time and uncertain trajectory could both indirectly lead to unwanted escalation. 

The danger is rooted in the difficulty of distinguishing between a conventional and a nuclear-armed hypersonic missile. 

Conventional ballistic long-range missiles traditionally follow a parabolic arc, making interception a matter of timing and precision. A hypersonic missile with a fluctuating approach vector would be far more difficult to intercept.

A 2019 study conducted by the United Nations Office of Disarmament Affairs on hypersonic weapons warns that even if a hypersonic is clearly conventional, states may still perceive the strike as nuclear or strategic in nature, forcing a strategic response in return. 

Modern nuclear strategy is built around a core tenet of ‘Mutually Assured Destruction’ (MAD), with nations guarding their second-strike capacities to ensure predetermined retaliation and no clear victor.

Knowledge of this deters nations from launching first-strike capabilities, given the high cost sure to follow, but confusions are still not uncommon. Since the 1950’s, there have been at least 15 nuclear close-calls by various nuclear-capable nations.

Heated race

Despite its hypersonic programme still largely under development, the US has nonetheless pushed through with low-profile tests to avoid increased tensions with Russia. 

Days after Russia’s mid-March launch of its hypersonic Kinzhal missile, the US carried out its first successful test of a Lockheed Martin ‘Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept’ (HAWC), yet kept it under wraps for two weeks amid ongoing tensions over Ukraine.

This would mark the second successful HAWC test, and the first variant of its kind that was developed by the Lockheed-Martin variant. The first competing design was developed by Raytheon and tested in September 2021. 

The latest HAWC was launched from a B-52 nuclear-capable bomber in New Mexico, reaching Mach 5.8 or nearly 1.98 kilometres per second. 

While the US pushes to complete development, Russia has used hypersonic missiles several times in Ukraine since February 24, including the launch of three ‘Kinzhal’ (Dagger) hypersonic missiles into Odessa Oblast. 

Marking the first use of a hypersonic missile in an active military theatre, US President Joe Biden described it as “almost impossible to stop,”

It remains to be seen whether hypersonic weapons will change the nature of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, though it may still prove to be a capable strategic option.

Meanwhile, China claims to have developed artificial intelligence predicting a hypersonic missile’s trajectory, in addition to allegedly developing infrared homing technology they claim the US will not have until 2025.

China’s recent milestones in hypersonic development include a rocket-assisted dual-stage launch into low-earth orbit, provoking fears that the test was, in fact, for an orbiting hypersonic missile. China denies allegations of hypersonic weapons testing.

While most nuclear powers are actively pursuing hypersonic weapons, efforts are driven by different strategic rationales. 

For instance, China’s alleged homing technology reflects earlier design thinking that led to the design of the DF-17 missile, an anti-area access and denial (A2/AD) weapon designed with the South China sea in mind. 

“Technological changes are happening at an increased speed, said Russian president Vladimir Putin at the unveiling of Russia’s first hypersonic missile.

He adds, “Those who take advantage of this new technology will launch forward. Those who are unable to do that will be buried under this tide of technological progress.