Pakistan Polls: New beginning in India-Pak ties unlikely

In 2013 as I landed in Lahore to report on the general elections, news came in of Imran Khan suffering a major stage fall during a rally just four days ahead of general elections in the country. A sea of supporters of his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) waited outside the Shaukat Khanum Hospital that Khan had built through years of efforts and public donations. The former charismatic cricket team captain was finally a serious player in Pakistani politics winning 35 seats in the National Assembly. Though the slogans of Sher Aya Sher Aya (There comes the tiger) resonated loudly and strongly as former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif returned to power.

The more things change….

As an Indian journalist on the streets of Pakistan, what was also striking about the elections was domestic issues of energy crisis and price rise dominating the campaign across parties instead of Kashmir or anti-India rhetoric. Indian scholars in the world’s largest democracy were asking if the military-civilian imbalance could transform for the better in the neighbouring country. And if this could open up the window for stable bilateral ties with the return of Mian Nawaz Sharif- a known critic of the Pakistan Army and an enthusiast for improved ties with India.

As Pakistan now gears up for another general elections, former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his top party colleagues are locked up under serious charges. Nawaz Sharif looks all set to return to power. But the same questions still remain with little or no hope of a significant improvement in India-Pakistan ties.

Old wine, Old Bottle

Early in their terms in 2014-2015, both Sharif and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made some peace overtures. Sharif attended Modi’s oath taking ceremony in 2014 against domestic odds. Modi paid an unprecedented surprise visit to Sharif in Lahore in 2015 on his way to Delhi from Kabul. Later Imran Khan as the Prime Minister in 2018 would call himself a great friend of India given his familiarity with Indians as an iconic cricketer. In 2019, with the backing of military headquarters in Rawalpindi, Imran Khan paved the way for the opening of the historic religious corridor connecting shrines between Indian Punjab and Kartarpur in Pakistan revered by millions of Sikh devotees.

Despite these momentary highs, like in the past, ties have remained hostile since the 2013 elections that marked the first democratic civilian transition of power in Pakistan after its birth in 1947. There have been several episodes of close confrontation between the two nuclear armed neighbours over terror attacks. The only difference that Indian policymakers feel is that the Pakistan army has not carried out a direct coup in the country since Pervez Musharraf’s exit but remains the driver behind the wheels of the civilian governments. But holes have been punched in the larger narrative of the military establishment’s unquestioned control over the country.

India like always is watching this power transition in Pakistan closely but cautiously and with no big appetite for some major reconciliation. The roles have reversed since 2018 when Nawaz Sharif rallied against the Pakistan establishment. Now that anti-military tirade is Imran Khan’s - once dubbed the army’s blue-eyed boy. PTI hopes to win sympathy through its social media campaigns for its leader behind bars in what is claimed as a witch-hunt. As a former Indian diplomat chimed recently in a closed door meeting, “There is no hero or villain in Pakistan elections.”

Indian Interest in Regional Stability

For New Delhi what matters is relative stability remains within Pakistan and on the Line of Control and International Boundary the two countries share. Importantly at a time there is unpredictability in its neighbourhood. A new government in Maldives, which is hostile towards India. Ongoing strife in Myanmar. Neighbouring Sri Lanka emerging out of the woods post a financial crisis. The Taliban administration in Afghanistan. Frequent political upheavals in Nepal. And overarching wariness to Chinese interference in South Asia combined with the China-Pakistan ‘all weather friendship’.

The Indian Army remains in a tense standoff with the Chinese PLA at the Line of Actual Control since the bloodied clashes in Galwan in June 2020 in which soldiers were killed. It is not in India’s interest to face a two-front war situation on its borders. Just like for Pakistan which faces a political, economic and security poly crisis internally and violent skirmishes on borders with neighbours including India, Afghanistan and Iran.

But India would want a ceasefire agreement on the Line of Control to continue. After a period of high number of violations reported by the Indian Home (Interior) Ministry the previous year, the agreement revived in February 2021, silenced the guns on the borders relatively, though incidents of violations and cross border infiltration attempts continue. The past year has also seen a number of high-intensity stand-offs between Indian security personnel and militants allegedly backed by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba resulting in loss of lives in the earlier quieter sectors along the International Border.

“There is still no clear understanding as to what led to Pakistan agreeing to a revival of the ceasefire in 2021. But it has added an element of stability. It is in India’s national interest to stabilise ties to whatever extent possible with all its continental neighbours”, says former High Commissioner to Pakistan TCA Raghavan.

The Kashmir Complication

Ties have been further complicated since August 2019 when New Delhi abrogated Article 370 which gave special powers to Jammu and Kashmir and downgraded its statehood to a Union Territory. The move led to recalling of the High Commissioners and a diplomatic freeze on both sides. Trading of allegations during Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s visit to Goa to attend the SCO meeting- the first visit by a Pakistani foreign minister to India in many years- only added to bitterness in ties.

The popular far-right government under Prime Minister Modi has delivered on its Hindutva-related promises to its core constituency. As of today it looks in pole position to win India’s next parliamentary elections due in a few months for the third consecutive time. For the BJP and its top brass any rescinding of the abrogation as a condition for any future dialogue is out of the question.

“Since both states re-committed to the ceasefire in February 2021, India has maintained a ‘minimal’ transactional relationship with Pakistan, engaging neither positively (proactive peace talks) or negatively (escalating militarily at the Line of Control),” underlined a recent report published by Delhi based think-tank CSDR.

“Thus far, India’s ‘non-engagement’ approach to Pakistan has shown limited risks”.

Nawaz Sharif may return with large numbers or a fractured mandate in the elections. There may be some window for peace overtures later in the year once Indian elections are done and dusted. But unless Modi really feels the need to reconstruct the vision of South Asia and take risks towards larger regional peace or Sharif is able to look beyond the Kashmir issue, the chances of any major reset in India-Pakistan ties would be slim.

Do not expect “Pappi-Jhappis” (Kisses and Hugs) between the rulers in this brittle relationship for a while.