Four ways the Turkish report on Khashoggi could make life hard for MBS

Turkish authorities have drip-fed information to international media outlets on the gruesome murder of The Washington Post columnist and Saudi national Jamal Khashoggi.

The Saudis have fumbled every opportunity to come clean and admit the full truth of the events regarding the Saudi journalist killed on Turkish soil.

Their stories fell apart the moment they departed the lips of a Saudi government representative: firstly a fight broke out which resulted in his death, then a headlock. And now, CNN international reports that the Saudis had sent a body double of Khashoggi, which begs the question, what purpose did he serve in Istanbul if not for some nefarious ending of Khashoggi? 

With Turkish authorities set to release their report tomorrow, all indications are that it will be a damning indictment. 

This is what Turkey could do that will further complicate Saudi's version of the events.

Where is the body? 

Turkish authorities sent forensic teams to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul where Khashoggi was last seen entering but never left. 

This was shortly followed by sending investigative teams to the residence of the Saudi consul general in Istanbul, where the team of 15 Saudis alleged to be behind the murder of Khashoggi went after the consulate.

It will be crucial to see what was recovered by forensic experts – blood spatter and bone fragments could hold vital clues. 

CCTV footage from Istanbul's Belgrad Forest is also being examined on the assumption that the body could have been disposed there. 

Another possibility remains that the body, in part or in whole, was taken out of the country using diplomatic bags.  

This is in addition to information that Turkish authorities may have from recordings of what was happening inside the consulate that are yet to be officially released which could very well directly implicate Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman, aka MBS.  

Who pulled the trigger behind the operation?

The report by Turkish authorities will make uncomfortable reading for Riyadh, not least because it could end up being the cul-de-sac from which there could be no escape for Saudi Arabia or MBS and the excuses emanating from Riyadh.

The evidence leaked thus far indicates that culpability extends to the highest echelons of intelligence and the interior ministry - both are branches of the Saudi state that MBS has held under close control since at least 2017.

The bone saw, the body double, sending the forensic expert Salah Muhammed al Tubaighy to Istanbul indicate that the operation against Khashoggi was premeditated.

Violation of international law?

The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic relations, signed in 1961 governs the diplomatic relationship between states. 

Among other rights the Convention confers is diplomatic immunity on diplomats, which protects them from prosecution against crimes they commit in another country. Unless, the country of origin waives the immunity. 

Diplomatic residences and premises are also protected by the same convention, the Saudi authorities have since waived this immunity. 

This, however, leaves the question of a missing body, if it was transported through Istanbul's airport using diplomatic bags, this would be a clear and flagrant breach of the convention. 

The convention makes it clear that diplomats must obey the laws of the country they reside in and not abuse the privileges and immunities bestowed onto them.

The Saudi government, in murdering a journalist and possibly transporting his body across international borders, could be guilty of such abuse.  

Criminal extradition? 

After the dust settles there will be the small matter of holding the perpetrators of the crime accountable and bringing justice to Khashoggi's fiancee and family

MBS is unlikely to ever face justice, but his reputation will have been damaged beyond repair. 

Few Western leaders will want to meet with him. Fewer still will buy into the oasis turned mirage of Saudi Arabia being led by a reformist minded, younger leader. 

All eyes will fall on the the 15 member team dispatched by MBS. 

Who will hold them accountable? Will they be charged and prosecuted in a sham trial in Saudi Arabia or will they be handed over to Turkey to face justice?

If Saudi Arabia is to begin the road to international redemption and show how serious it takes the international fallout, it would hold its hands up and allow the people who killed Khashoggi to face trial in Turkey.