Will Trump prove to be America’s Gorbachev?

As the 20th century neared its end, the Soviet Union, once an unshakable superpower, found itself in deep turmoil. The weight of economic stagnation, political dysfunction, and an overstretched empire had brought the USSR to the brink.

Enter Mikhail Gorbachev—the Soviet leader with a bold vision. As General Secretary of the Communist Party (March 11, 1985 – August 24, 1991) and later the Soviet Union's first and only President (March 15, 1990 – December 25, 1991), Gorbachev aimed to revitalise the Soviet system. His landmark policies of ‘glasnost’ (openness) and ‘perestroika’ (restructuring), introduced in the mid-1980s, sought to reform the nation's political and economic landscape.

Eventually, ‘glasnost’ exposed deep-seated corruption, past government atrocities, and economic failures, fueling public dissent and nationalist movements that weakened Soviet unity. At the same time, ‘perestroika’ attempted partial economic and political reforms, but instead of revitalising the system, it led to economic turmoil, loss of central control, and the disintegration of Soviet influence.

Now, in the 21st century, a strikingly similar phenomenon is unfolding—not in Moscow, but in Washington. US President Donald Trump, much like Gorbachev, has set out to "Make America Great Again" through a radical overhaul of domestic and foreign policy. Yet, as he challenges the very institutions and alliances that have long upheld US supremacy, analysts suggest he may unwittingly hasten the decline of “American imperialism”.

“The most common similarity between Gorbachev and Trump, both representing the ruling elites, is their fight against the political systems of their respective countries through reforms,” Istanbul-based foreign policy and security analyst Elnur Ismayil tells TRT World.

“Gorbachev’s goal was to save the Soviet Union, but his policies sped up its collapse,” he notes.

The ‘reforms’ being pushed in the US can have a similar fallout.

“Similarly, Trump’s policies—though framed as making America ‘great again’—may actually hasten its decline by weakening institutions, straining alliances, and undermining economic stability,” adds Delhi-based geopolitical analyst Prashant Tandon.

Zhiqun Zhu, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania concurs.

“The comparison between Gorbachev and Trump is interesting," he says, noting that while Trump’s stated goal is to "Make America Great Again," it remains unclear how his policies will achieve this objective.

A case of two reforms

There are two compelling parallels between the two leaders from two different eras, according to analysts.

First, like Gorbachev’s radical reforms, Trump’s policies—from strict immigration measures and an "America First" trade approach to withdrawals from global agreements—are seen as a departure from traditional US liberal values.

“By deviating sharply from established norms, both leaders have inadvertently weakened the internal frameworks that once underpinned their nations’ global influence,” Tandon explains.

Second, as Gorbachev distanced the USSR from its allies, reshaping the global balance of power, Trump’s scepticism toward multilateral institutions—evident in his stance on NATO and trade pacts—has triggered a realignment of US alliances.

“Gorbachev’s reforms cost the USSR its 'elder brother' status within the socialist bloc,” says Ismayil. “Trump’s rhetoric is pushing the US toward isolation.”

Tariffs and trade wars: Lessons from ‘perestroika’

Since his second term began on January 20, Trump has reimposed steep tariffs on Chinese imports, cut federal funding for electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure, pressured NATO allies to increase defence spending, and disbanded USAID–raising concerns about the US soft power.

Additionally, his administration has imposed 25 percent tariffs on Colombian imports, temporarily threatened similar tariffs on Canada and Mexico–put off for a month after urgent talks with the two neighbours–and withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Trump’s economic policies, particularly his tariff wars and retreat from multilateralism, mirror some of the unintended consequences of ‘perestroika’, according to analysts. Much like Gorbachev’s partial market reforms disrupted Soviet trade networks, Trump’s tariffs are straining economic ties with key trade partners.

"Trump’s tariff-focused policies and his disdain for international cooperation—such as withdrawing the US from the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement—will alienate US allies, partners, and competitors alike and deeply hurt US international image and soft power," argues Zhu.

"And the tariffs will also hurt US consumers at home. It is hard to think that his policies will help strengthen US power and global standing," he tells TRT World.

The death of USAID

The Trump administration's decision to restructure the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and plans to merge it with the State Department has raised concerns about the future of US foreign aid.

With senior officials sidelined and key programmes suspended, America risks losing diplomatic leverage and soft power. Foreign aid has long been a tool for fostering goodwill and influence in developing nations.

Analysts liken this retreat to the USSR’s withdrawal from Eastern Europe under Gorbachev’s 'perestroika'. As the US scales back, China stands to fill the void, enhancing its global standing at America's expense.

Zhu warns that Trump's isolationism weakens US influence. "Once a champion of the rules-based international order since WWII, the US now looks like a rebel that disregards global norms and rules."

Fracturing alliances

Trump’s demands for higher NATO spending and threats to reduce US military commitments have unsettled the alliance. His interest in acquiring Greenland, a move that has angered Denmark and other NATO members, further underscores his transactional diplomacy.

If pursued, such actions could fracture NATO, weakening a cornerstone of US global influence, say analysts, drawing a parallel with how perestroika’s decentralisation fragmented the Soviet Union.

“Gorbachev opposed the presence of Soviet military forces abroad. Similarly, Trump has stated that American soldiers stationed overseas should return to the US,” notes Ismayil, adding that “Gorbachev’s stance on the Warsaw Pact was not much different from Trump’s view on NATO.”

Tandon argues that Trump's actions indicate that, for the first time, a US President is actively weakening NATO. “Over the past four decades, NATO has wreaked havoc in Asian countries, but this pattern is now set to end. If Trump advances his Greenland agenda, NATO could face a split,” he tells TRT World.

“Trump’s threat to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland adds to this list of things that will weaken America's global support,” Zhu concurs.

Crippling the EV industry: A gift to China

One of Trump's most controversial domestic decisions has been to halt federal funding for electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure and promote a "level playing field" for gasoline-powered vehicles. Critics argue that this move could cripple the American EV industry, handing a competitive advantage to China in the global auto market.

Zhu sees a comparison between Trump’s policy and Gorbachev’s unintended strengthening of his rivals. "Trump is going against the global trend of promoting clean energy and the green revolution. The US is already behind many countries in developing green technologies, including making EVs," he notes.

"On the other hand, China has made strides in the green revolution and become a leader in green technologies and EVs. Trump's policies will accelerate America's decline in technological and climate leadership while offering China the opportunity to fill the gap," he contends.

Glasnost and DOGE

In the mid-1980s, Mikhail Gorbachev introduced ‘glasnost’ as a means to increase transparency in government, encourage freedom of speech, and reduce censorship. The Soviet leader believed that open discussions on political and social issues would rally public support for reform efforts aimed at modernising the Soviet Union.

However, ‘glasnost’ had unintended consequences. The exposure of long-suppressed topics, including Stalinist purges, systemic corruption, and the mishandling of disasters like Chernobyl, fueled public outrage and deepened mistrust in the government.

As censorship eased, nationalist sentiments surged across various Soviet republics, with regions like the Baltics, Ukraine, and Georgia using their newfound freedoms to push for independence. Open criticism of the Communist Party further eroded its authority, emboldening opposition movements and accelerating the unravelling of the Soviet system.

Although Donald Trump has not advocated transparency in the same manner as Gorbachev, his persistent attacks on the so-called “deep state” have similarly unsettled entrenched power structures.

By declassifying intelligence files—such as those related to the 1960s assassinations of former US president John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert F Kennedy and civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr—and openly challenging institutions like the FBI, CIA, and State Department, he has fueled public scepticism toward agencies responsible for upholding national security.

Like 'glasnost' weakened the USSR’s control, “Trump’s crusade against US institutions risks eroding internal stability and global influence,” notes Tandon.

“Whether this will lead to renewal or decline remains an open question,” he adds, observing that the long-standing nexus between oil companies, the military-industrial complex, and the American deep state is undergoing transformation.

Analysts also note that Trump’s newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by billionaire SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, mirrors ‘glasnost’ in its push for transparency.

However, critics have already raised alarm over DOGE’s tightening grip over federal government, with at least 19 US states filing lawsuits to stop the panel from accessing government systems used to process trillions of dollars in payments.

Rise of a new world order

Following the Soviet collapse, a new world order emerged, reshaping global power dynamics. The dissolution of the USSR in 1991 marked the end of the Cold War, paving the way for US unipolar dominance and the expansion of Western-led institutions like NATO and the European Union.

Similarly, as Trump forges ahead with his radical agenda—challenging traditional alliances, upending diplomatic norms, and redefining America’s global role—the world is witnessing the emergence of a new geopolitical order, one marked by intensified great-power competition, shifting alliances, and the rise of nationalist and populist movements.

While some view his presidency as an effort to restore American greatness, others argue that it may instead mark the beginning of its decline.

Zhu remains cautious, noting that "though America may not become ‘great again’ under Trump, the US system has a self-correction mechanism. Trump will step down in four years, and hopefully, a new generation of American leaders will emerge. The US will remain a global power, though weakened, for a long time to come."

Despite the parallels, there’s one big difference between Gorbachev and Trump. Ironically, while the former Soviet leader is credited with ending the Cold War between the US-led West and the Soviet Union, the current US President is being accused of pushing forward a Cold War agenda—particularly one aimed at containing China.

Whether this marks the end of US hegemony or the beginning of a more multipolar world remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the era of unchallenged American dominance is drawing to a close.

"Under Trump, America is retreating from global diplomacy, creating space for a new world order where Europe and the US will pursue separate policies, while Asian nations and the Global South strengthen ties with China amid ongoing trade wars," contends Tandon.

Whether history will judge Trump as America’s Gorbachev remains to be seen, but the parallels between their disruptive leadership styles are striking.

“Gorbachev could not foresee that his reforms would lead to the loss of the Soviet Union’s superpower status. I believe that, just as Gorbachev aimed to strengthen the USSR, Trump wants to make the US great again. However, his reforms may ultimately lead to the decline of America’s superpower status,” concludes Ismayil.