The future trajectory of Türkiye-Iraq relations took centre stage at a panel in Ankara, where experts said expanding institutional cooperation and common security concerns are increasingly defining ties between the two neighbours.
The event, titled “New Regional Dynamics and the Future of Türkiye-Iraq Relations,” was hosted by the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) and brought together analysts from Türkiye and Iraq to assess political, security, and economic dimensions of the relationship.
Bilgay Duman, Strategic Analysis Director at Anadolu, said that Iraq occupies a pivotal position in the region and that developments there have a direct impact on Türkiye.
Ankara’s policy, he noted, prioritises Iraq’s political unity and has gained momentum under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.
Turkish approach to crisis in Iraq
Duman said Türkiye’s more institutional and restrained approach during Iraq’s 2019 anti-government protests helped strengthen its image as a balancing actor, adding that bilateral ties should progress independently of wider regional rivalries.
He pointed to the presence of the PKK terror group and Daesh as key areas for deeper joint action.
“I believe Türkiye-Iraq relations should move forward independently from regional processes,” Duman said.
Sensitive relations between Türkiye and Iraq
Mehmet Alaca, Anadolu’s chief correspondent, said relations have entered a period of institutionalisation but remain sensitive to regional tensions.
He noted that recent regional developments could either accelerate cumulative progress or disrupt cooperation.
On water-related disputes that periodically surface in Iraqi politics, Alaca said some actors use the issue provocatively, while Türkiye consistently frames it in humanitarian terms.
He added that Baghdad has become more receptive to Turkish concerns over the PKK’s presence in northern Iraq, as the Qandil Mountains in Iraq are considered the terror group’s main base.
Alaca also said easing tensions between the Syrian administration and the YPG terror group, followed by a ceasefire and integration process, could generate positive spillover effects for Türkiye-Iraq relations.
“Ankara-Baghdad have potential to deepen cooperation”
From the Iraqi perspective, Adel Badavi of Baghdad University said Gulf tensions and friction between the United States and Iran have created a fragile security environment that affects both countries.
Despite this, he said Ankara and Baghdad have significant potential to deepen regional cooperation, including through the Development Road Project, which aims to boost trade and connectivity.
Salam Jabbar of the Hivar el-Fikr Research Center said instability since the start of Israeli attacks on Gaza has tested both countries’ ability to maintain balance, noting that Türkiye is Iraq’s fourth-largest trade partner and that instability in Iraq would also harm the Turkish economy.
