Noureldein GhanemWashington, DC — Venezuela has opened its first formal transition talks in years, carried forward by cautious optimism as negotiators attempt to bridge a political divide that has long left the country's institutions paralysed.
Representatives of the interim government and opposition figures are expected to focus on rebuilding key state institutions, restoring electoral credibility, and laying the groundwork for internationally recognised elections, even as they contend with the humanitarian toll of recent, devastating earthquakes.
Still, expectations remain tempered.
Venezuela's history is littered with failed negotiations, and the mistrust between rival political camps runs deep enough that few are ready to call this moment a turning point just yet.
"The most immediate outcome is likely to be a continued commitment to coordinating humanitarian assistance and reconstruction following the recent earthquake, together with efforts to improve cooperation between domestic institutions and international donors," Jenaro Abraham, a political scientist and professor of Latin American politics at Gonzaga University, tells TRT World.
"The negotiations may also strengthen arguments for the gradual easing of certain US and international sanctions if measurable political and institutional reforms are implemented."
Abraham says that the talks could also produce agreements on institutional reforms, including changes to electoral administration, judicial oversight, and political participation, saying that "even incremental progress in these areas could improve political stability and encourage greater international engagement with Venezuela."
However, Venezuela's security environment is unlikely to see immediate results, argues Abraham, with armed groups operating near the Colombia-Venezuela border.
"Without a comprehensive security strategy and sustained institutional strengthening, these groups are likely to remain influential regardless of political agreements reached at the national level," Abraham argues.
Future of Chavismo
Since Nicolas Maduro's removal in January, one question has loomed over Venezuela's public: can the country truly break free from Chavismo, or will its shadow persist?
The behind-closed-doors talks now underway may not settle that question outright, but they could offer the clearest signal yet of what role — if any — Chavismo will still play in Venezuela's political future.
"The talks are more likely to shape how it (Chavismo) survives—as a governing party, a coalition partner, or a permanent opposition movement within a more competitive political environment," Abraham says.
"Although public frustration with the Maduro government has weakened support for the current administration, Chavismo remains one of Venezuela's most organised political and social movements."
Chavismo is a left-wing political ideology that is based on the ideas, programmes, and government style associated with the former president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez.
Chavismo, Abraham says, is internally diverse, encompassing military sectors, state bureaucracies, labour organisations, communal councils, neighbourhood organisations, public-sector employees, and business groups that have adapted to the system.
"Likewise, the Venezuelan opposition is far from homogeneous. It includes liberal democrats, conservatives, social democrats, business interests, regional political elites, and more confrontational factions that favour stronger external pressure on the government. Any future governing coalition would therefore likely reflect compromises among multiple political currents rather than a decisive victory for one camp," says Abraham.
Inclusive and exclusive
The talks will be led by members of Venezuela's overwhelmingly pro-government National Assembly and a group of former opposition lawmakers who previously attempted to oust Maduro.
In hindsight, the talks look to be inclusive, with even Maduro himself giving a nod to the talks from detention in the US.
However, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has declined to participate, arguing that negotiations should only proceed once meaningful democratic guarantees are in place.
Her exclusion has prompted criticism from supporters who believe any lasting settlement will require the participation of the country's most influential opposition figures.
"While no single official explanation has been provided for her exclusion, several factors likely help explain it. First, she is not a representative of the 2015 National Assembly, which serves as the institutional basis for the opposition's participation in the talks," Abraham explains.
"Second, many international actors supporting the negotiations appear to prioritise the reconstruction and strengthening of Venezuelan state institutions—both those that predate the PSUV's rise to power and those established under the Bolivarian Republic that continue to enjoy broad constitutional legitimacy—as well as broader political stability, over the participation of highly polarising political figures."
To put this in perspective, including a figure who consistently advocated uncompromising positions toward the Maduro government could make it harder to reach an agreement.
US interests
Washington has welcomed the transition talks, calling them "the first step in what will be a thoughtful process to secure a free and open Venezuelan society."
The US broadly supports an agreement that delivers credible institutions, internationally recognised elections, and protections for political participation. But its interest extends beyond democracy-building.
A more stable Venezuela would help curb irregular migration across the region and crack down on drug trafficking — strategic priorities Washington has repeatedly tied to the outcome here.
After meeting Paraguayan Vice President Pedro Alliana in Washington, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Newsweek that considerable work has gone into "laying the groundwork for an election."
Energy, though, may be the quieter driver behind it all.
"The United States, for its part, appears primarily interested in rebuilding institutions that could facilitate political stability in service of US-led extractivism around oil and other mining-related assets," Abraham says.
That means reorganising the National Electoral Council, overhauling a judicial system still stacked with Chavismo loyalists, and rebuilding the administrative machinery investors would need to trust before returning to Venezuela's oil sector.
Trump said soon after Maduro's removal that US companies would move quickly to rebuild that sector. Eight months later, no new deal with American firms has materialised, according to Axios.
Even so, diplomats and regional observers describe the talks as the most significant opening in years to begin rebuilding Venezuela's democratic institutions.
Few expect a fast breakthrough. But there's a growing consensus that a phased approach — pairing political reform with economic recovery and humanitarian aid — offers the country's best shot at stability after years of turmoil.
"Overall, the negotiations are more likely to lay the groundwork for gradual institutional normalisation than to resolve Venezuela's deeper political, economic, and security challenges in the short term," Abraham says.
"Any durable transition will depend less on the signing of agreements than on whether the parties are willing and able to implement them consistently over time."
