NASA on alert: Asteroid’s odds of hitting Earth just went up

An update from NASA has astronomers and space agencies worldwide on edge: the odds of an asteroid striking Earth have just increased.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, a 90-metre-wide space rock, now has a 2.3 percent chance of colliding with the planet Earth on December 22, 2032.

The probability remains still low, but the increase from 1.3 percent has flared urgency among scientists to track the asteroid’s path and estimate the potential risks.

But experts have reassured that this is not a cause for immediate alarm. Rather, it serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of space and the critical importance of planetary defence.

What we know so far

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is large enough to cause significant damage if it were to hit Earth.

While the chance of an asteroid of this size striking our planet is still minimal, even small percentages of space hazards demand serious attention.

According to experts, a collision could result in powerful seismic waves, a massive explosion, and regional climatic disruptions.

However, the likelihood of an impact remains relatively low.

“There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in,” said Molly Wasser, a researcher from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, in a statement.

Refined tracking

Currently, 2024 YR4 is rated a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a system that categorises the risk posed by near-Earth objects.

A level 3 rating signifies a “potentially hazardous” asteroid, but it’s important to underline that this doesn’t mean an impact is imminent.

The asteroid’s trajectory is influenced by a complex interplay of gravitational forces from other celestial bodies, and even minor changes in its path can significantly alter predictions.

Experts say the recent increase in impact probability is a result of refined tracking data. Advanced telescopes and monitoring systems have given scientists more accurate measurements. This helps them better understand how the asteroid moves.

However, as history has shown, early risk assessments often fluctuate. Over time, additional data will paint a clearer picture of 2024 YR4’s trajectory, potentially reducing –or, in rare cases, increasing– the perceived threat.

NASA’s efforts to safeguard Earth from potential asteroid impacts have made significant strides in recent years. In 2022, the space agency’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully demonstrated the ability to alter the course of an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it at high speed.

This groundbreaking test proved that deflecting an asteroid’s trajectory is possible, offering hope that future threats could be mitigated before they turn into a serious danger.

The biggest asteroid impact on Earth occurred 66 million years ago, when a 10-km-wide space rock wiped out the dinosaurs and 75 percent of all species.