Five things you need to know about the Sochi meeting

Syria’s seven years of war have seen international talks in the Kazakh capital Astana and in Switzerland's Geneva, aiming for a peaceful transition period for the country. In the meantime, Russia has intervened in Syria, and with its military support, the regime could reclaim half of the country back from the opposition groups.

With the influence it has with the regime and its power on the ground, Moscow has launched a new platform, called the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi, to discuss the future of Syria. But it's been a challenge bringing the opposition and the regime together.

Here’s what you need to know about the meeting:

What is the importance of the Sochi meeting? 

This is the third attempt for talks after the Syrian regime responded to opposition in the country with overwhelming military force in 2011. This round is being organised by Russia, one of the main players in the Syrian war. Moscow gave the Syrian regime limited support since 2011, but then intervened in the country in 2015—pushing Syrian regime leader Bashar al Assad to consolidate his position in the country. Previous peace talks were aimed at ending confrontations between the opposition and the regime, which are still ongoing. 

Talks in Sochi were supposed to focus mainly on Syria's future and a possible constitution. Russia wants to be the dominant player in the decision making process. Western countries, on the other hand, have called for Sochi to be complementary to the UN-sponsored talks in Geneva.

The most important outcome of the Sochi meeting was the decision to establish a constitutional committee made up of 150 candidates. Turkey was the opposition's guarantor at the Sochi meeting, and said in a statement after the meeting that it submitted a list of 50 delegates, chosen after a consultation with the opposition. The UN Special Envoy for Syria will be establishing the committee and will be able to appoint names both from the list of 150 candidates, or from outside the list. 

Why did Syrian opposition delegates refuse to attend?

For the Syrian opposition, negotiations to attend the meeting in Sochi have been rocky from the beginning. 

Assad’s removal from power, which was discussed during the Geneva talks, was not a precondition for the talks. This was one reason that the Syrian opposition refused to take part in the meeting. The statement by around 40 opposition groups, including some of the military factions that participated in the Geneva talks, blamed Moscow for not putting enough pressure on the Syrian regime. The group also blamed Russia for not abiding by the de-escalation agreement. During the Astana talks led by Russia, Iran and Turkey, de-escalation zones were planned to protect civilians. Despite the agreement the regime has continued its strikes in Idlib.

Turkey, which has backed the main Syrian opposition since the start of the civil war, negotiated with opposition groups to convince them to attend the meeting. Some of the members refused. Shortly before the meeting, Russia invited some members of the High Negotiation Committee (HNC) individually, instead of inviting them under the name of HNC. The newly elected leader of the HNC, Nasr Hariri wasn’t among those who received an invitation. With a sudden change of decision, the opposition delegates flew to Sochi together with Turkish delegates.

But Syrian regime flags and emblems printed on the meeting materials made the opposition decide not to attend the meeting. The group waited at the Sochi airport while the problem was resolved. When they discovered some 'unacceptable regime representatives' were in Sochi, they decided to give Turkish officials the right to represent them and returned to Turkey.

What is the High Negotiation Committee?

The High Negotiation Committee (HNC) is the main umbrella bloc serving as the Syrian opposition's diplomatic representative since 2015. It came under a wind of change in November 2017, when Nasr Hariri was named as the new head of the bloc after the head of the HNC Riyad Hijab resigned after almost two years as leader.

Around 140 members from different opposition platforms gathered in the Saudi capital Riyadh on November 22, aiming to “unify” various opposition groups.

They ended up with a solution to unite dissident opposition groups—the Cairo Platform, the Moscow Platform and the National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change (NCC)—under the HNC. The PKK’s Syrian branch the PYD/YPG, which controls much of northern Syria, wasn’t among the groups that came under HNC. 

Both the Cairo and Moscow platforms are widely seen as regime-tolerated opposition groups. While “bone-hard secularist” in the Cairo platform are linked to armed groups in the south of the country, the Moscow platform is backed by Russia, which has supported the Assad regime since the beginning of the war. Russia has been targeting opposition forces with air strikes in Syria over the past two years. Both the Cairo and Moscow platforms have four representatives in Geneva. 

What happened at the previous peace talks?

The first-ever peace process was launched a year after the Syrian civil war began. It was launched by the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland in 2012. With the support of the United States, Turkey and the Gulf, the Syrian opposition’s hand was the strongest as it would ever be. Assad’s ally Iran wasn’t invited to the talks. The final resolution of the first Geneva talks allowed the parties to discuss Assad’s removal for the transition period. But as nine new rounds of Geneva talks were held, they failed to achieve a political transition for the country.

Geneva talks hadn’t come up with any results and Iran didn't participate. And Turkey has been at odds with the US over the latter’s support for the YPG. So that the next peace talks followed in Kazakh capital Astana in December 2016, with Turkey, Iran and Russia taking the lead. The meeting in Astana brought the strongest fighting opposition groups on the field together and led them to talk directly to the regime. 

Astana produced more results than Geneva as the three guarantor countries agreed on “de-escalation zones” in a bid to stop violence in mainly opposition-held areas, despite the fact that it failed to be fully implemented.

Did the PYD/YPG attend?

Although shouldering the process with Turkey, Russia invited the PYD, the political branch of the YPG, to participate in the Sochi talks—a move that angered Turkey. Ankara firmly stated that its delegation would not participate in the talks if the PYD was invited. 

The US-backed SDF, a YPG dominated ground force, became the main tool of the US-led coalition’s fight against Daesh. The US’ decision to support the YPG instead of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the main armed opposition group fighting against Daesh, caused tensions to escalate between Turkey and the US. The YPG is the Syrian affiliate of the PKK, which is a designated terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and the EU.

Russia began arrangements for a new series of talks on Syria in Sochi in late 2017, while Daesh was mostly defeated in the country, mainly by the SDF.

Now having broad influence in the areas where they defeated Daesh, the PYD said it would participate in the talks, but the Turkish Foreign Minister later said it was agreed with Russia that the PYD won’t be going to Sochi. Blaming both the US and Russia for supporting the YPG, the Turkish Foreign Minister said “Russia at least understands” Turkey’s sensitivity on the YPG. There was no representation of the PYD at the meeting.