Syria's Idlib prepares for battle

They dug trenches around towns, reinforced caves for cover and put up sand bags around their positions. They issued calls to arms, urging young men to join in the defence of Idlib, the Syrian province where opposition and rebel fighters expect to make their last stand against the Russian and Iranian-backed Syrian regime they have fought for years.

This time, it's "surrender or die."

As the decisive stand for their last stronghold looms, this motley crew of tens of thousands of opposition and rebel fighters, including some of the world's most militant groups, are looking for ways to salvage whatever is possible of an armed rebellion that at one point in the seven-year conflict controlled more than half of the country.

In its last chapter, just as it has throughout the long, bloody war, the Syrian rebellion's fate lies in foreign hands. 

This time, the splintered and diverse opposition only has Turkey.

"The whole world gave up on us, but Turkey will not," said Captain Najib al Mustafa, spokesman for the Turkish-backed umbrella group known as the National Front for Liberation.

Idlib, with its 3 million residents and more than 60,000 fighters, is Turkey's cross to bear.

Ankara has appealed to Russia and Iran, its uneasy negotiating partners within the Astana peace process, for a diplomatic resolution to the ticking bomb. 

At the same time, it has sent reinforcements to its 12 observation posts ringing Idlib, a move designed to ward off a ground assault, at least for now.

A wide offensive is only likely after a green light from Russia.

But delicate diplomatic moves are at work. Moscow is keen on strengthening ties with Turkey, at a time when Ankara's relations are at their lowest with the US. 

Turkey is appealing to the international community for support, willing to negotiate with Russia, but not at the expense of its own interests or those of the people of Idlib.

Final bastion

On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Russia's President Vladimir Putin for the second time in 10 days, this time in Sochi, Russia.

"After proving its influence in Syria and the Middle East, Russia wants to pull Turkey away from the West much more than achieve a military victory over the armed Syrian opposition," said Mustafa Ellabbad, an expert on Turkish-Arab relations.

Idlib province, the size of Lebanon, has been the beating heart of the opposition for years.

In opposition and rebel hands since 2015, it is the largest contiguous territory they controlled. 

It has access to Turkish borders with secure supply lines.

For the past two years, Idlib became the shoe-box into which were pushed an estimated 20,000 opposition and rebel fighters from around the country, after their losses to regime troops and surrender deals negotiated with Russia and Damascus following devastating sieges.

Civilians who refused to go back under regime rule were also bussed there, nearly doubling the province's population.

Among the estimated 60,000 opposition and rebel fighters in Idlib are at least 10,000 militants affiliated with the the remnants of Al Qaeda, a group now known as Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS).

Thousands of foreign fighters, from China, Europe and the Middle East, are the backbone of the militant groups.

The Turkish reinforcements are going to 12 observation points that Ankara set up around Idlib last year under a deal with Russia and Iran creating a "de-escalation zone."

The deal also effectively stopped an earlier regime advance and set Turkey up as Idlib's protector.

Separately, Turkey has troops stationed in the enclave under its control north and east of Idlib, where it backs Syrian opposition fighters and a civilian administration.

It is part of its plan to create a safe area along the border where some of the more than three million Syrian refugees it hosts may return.

Ankara initially sent in its troops more than two years ago to push out Daesh and YPG terrorists. 

For Ankara, the US-backed YPG is the Syrian affiliate of the PKK, which is listed as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and EU.

"In the mind of the rebellion, the hope is that from Turkish support they can have ... a republic of northern Syria, protected by Turkey like Northern Cyprus," said Fabrice Balanche, a Syria watcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

These Turkey-administered areas are likely to be the destination of the displaced and opposition fighters of Idlib in case of an offensive.

Looming offensive

An Idlib offensive holds multiple threats for Turkey right on its border – a humanitarian crisis, a security nightmare with thousands of gunmen loose and a defeat to its plans for the safe zone. 

"There is really no way for the Syrian military and Damascus' allies to launch a military offensive on Idlib that doesn't have deeply negative, injurious effects on Turkey. There is no real way they can cushion this for Turkey," said Sam Heller, a Syria expert in the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Turkish-backed National Front in recent months gained control of territory in Idlib from HTS, which still controls nearly 70 percent of the province. HTS began to show signs of splits and two weeks ago, Turkey declared it a terrorist group.

But with the onset of a military offensive, HTS has set up joint operation rooms with different National Front factions.

Making a rare video appearance in late August, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Golani vowed to fight Assad's forces and said Turkish observation points were no protection.

In rallies around Idlib in the last two weeks, protesters took to the streets to deny that the province is a hotbed of militants. 

Thousands raised only the flag of the Syrian revolution, a reminder that there was once a popular uprising against Assad, and Idlib is now its last bastion.

Some raised banners reading: "The rebels are our hope and the Turks are our brothers."

Syrian forces and Iran-backed militias are likely to try to avoid clashes with Turkish troops. 

But the stance of the Syrian regime and Iran is clear-cut: they vow to recapture all Syrian territory and are loath to see an expansion of Turkish and foreign influence, apart from its backers.

They argue the West fuelled militants with past support of the opposition and now must let Syria get rid of them.

"Assad and Russia gave the choice to the international community: first we kill everybody. Second thing, [they said] if you want to protect [Idlib] then take those people you think are nice ... It is cynical but puts the international community before its contradictions," said Balanche.

Al Mustafa, the National Front spokesman, said the opposition is prepared for a battle he called "existential."

But, he added, "our cause will not end if we lose this battle."