Big brother in space: APSS keeps close eye on Russia and China

NATO's collective defence strategy extends its protective umbrella to satellite constellations. To put it another way, NATO will retaliate to any attack on its allies' space assets. The Transatlantic Alliance has declared space a fifth operational domain, alongside air, land, maritime, and cyberspace.

The prevailing security landscape is challenged by diverse and complex threats. Cyberattacks, hybrid warfare, anti-satellite weapons (ASATs) and other challenges have expanded the scope of risks that NATO members encounter. As a result, space has emerged as a critical arena for security and future conflict, demanding the protection of space assets as well as the ability to conduct surveillance and intelligence from space.

In 2019, NATO, the world’s most powerful military alliance, recognised this challenge and declared space as a new operational zone. Their space strategy outlines how the Alliance would utilize space to assist its missions and operations. It discusses both challenges and opportunities associated with space, including its expanding deployment, competition, and potential risks from hostile activities against space assets.

To improve and enhance its capabilities and activities in space, NATO has taken a major step by launching the Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS) initiative in 2023. APSS, NATO's global space initiative, aspires to build Aquila, a virtual constellation of national and private space assets that will deliver space-based surveillance and intelligence for its members.

APSS vs. other surveillance systems

APSS differs from other surveillance systems like GPS, Galileo, Beidou, and GLONASS due to its distinct focus and intent. While APSS is committed to security and defence, other global positioning systems like GPS, Galileo, Beidou, and GLONASS are primarily made for commercial and civilian purposes.

In order to improve NATO's situational awareness and rapid response capabilities, APSS entails the deployment of modern satellites outfitted with specialised sensors and imaging equipment for continuous monitoring of ground and maritime activities. In contrast, the main goals of GPS, Galileo, Beidou, and GLONASS are to provide accurate location and timing data to users worldwide for telecommunications, navigation, mapping, and other civil uses. A vital pillar of NATO's collective defence policy is APSS, which stands out due to its focus on security and defence.

APSS: a versatile tool for NATO

NATO's strategy for gathering and utilising data from space is expected to be revolutionised by APSS, dramatically increasing intelligence and surveillance capabilities. It will increase NATO's exchange of space-based information, assisting in navigation, communication, and early missile launch alerts. It is critical in a world where potential adversaries such as China and Russia are developing anti-satellite missiles.

APSS will lower the possibility of surprise attacks and raise the legitimacy of NATO's deterrence stance. This will make it more difficult for Russia and China to threaten or intimidate NATO or its allies with their nuclear or conventional weapons. As a result, NATO will be more operationally effective and ready across a range of all recognized domains. It will also make it possible for NATO to react swiftly and forcefully to any prospective Russian or Chinese aggression.

APSS utilisation in conflictual zones

APSS is essential in observing activity in strategically crucial regions. In the Arctic, where Russia has been stepping up its military presence. APSS satellites can enable real-time surveillance and intelligence gathering, allowing NATO to closely monitor Russian military movements, infrastructure development, and maritime activity in the region. The ability of NATO to successfully address any new security issues in the Arctic depends on this improved situational awareness.

In the South China Sea, APSS deployment will improve maritime domain awareness in the area by closely monitoring activities of naval movements and potential security concerns. Through its monitoring of important maritime routes, NATO has demonstrated its commitment to protecting open sea lanes for international trade. The availability of APSS capabilities acts as a deterrence against potential aggressors and ensures quick response in the event of security events, one notable example being its function in preventing escalations.

In the context of the Ukraine conflict, APSS can provide crucial intelligence on troop movements, possible ceasefire violations, and changes in the conflict's dynamics, any Russian missile attack can simply be detected by it. This information improves NATO's capacity to assess situations, make rational choices, and respond effectively to emerging threats to regional stability. Through its active participation in tracking the changing dynamics of the Ukraine crisis and providing insightful information to achieve a more secure and peaceful resolution, APSS highlights NATO's commitment to supporting regional stability and conflict avoidance.

Chinese and Russian concerns

Russia perceives NATO's space operations as a threat to its strategic and national security. They believe that NATO is attempting to militarise and weaponise space. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that the US considered space to be a "theatre of military operations" and that the creation of the US Space Force threatened Russia. In November 2021, Russia tested an anti-satellite missile endangering the International Space Station and producing significant space debris. According to Russia, the test was a retaliation to NATO's announcement of space as a new operational domain.

In April 2023, Russia offered a draft resolution at the United Nations General Assembly to prevent an arms race in outer space and accused NATO of violating international laws and the peaceful resolution of Outer Space. To counterbalance, Russia has created and tested a variety of anti-space capabilities that could conflict with or obstruct NATO's space operations. These include systems that are based on the ground, in the air, or in space that have the ability to jam, spoof, hack, dazzle, or destroy allied space systems. Russia has also launched a number of spacecraft that have displayed unusual and suspicious behaviour, such as manoeuvring close to other satellites or ejecting things into orbit.

NATO's space missions are likewise viewed as a threat by China. They believe NATO is trying to obstruct, counter, and gain an unfair advantage over China and other countries while also trying to restrain and limit China's rise and influence in space. In June 2020, China denounced NATO's plan to designate space as a new operating zone, arguing that it would undermine global strategic stability and raise the potential of a space weapons race.

In November 2021, China objected to NATO for condemning its anti-satellite missile launch, claiming that it was a legitimate act of self-defence and that NATO had no right to be interfering in China's security affairs. In June 2022, China also rejected NATO's invitation to join the APSS programme, arguing that it was an aggressive and confrontational move that would endanger China's security interests and erode trust and cooperation among space-faring states. China is also developing and testing a number of anti-space capabilities that might interfere with or obstruct NATO's space operations.

APSS's capability to monitor the Line of Actual Control

APSS capabilities will be extending US support via NATO for India's security concerns, both on land and at sea, heralding a new era of partnership and strategic coordination. On land, the surveillance prowess of APSS is particularly crucial for India to detect any abnormalities in the region. APSS's capability to monitor the de-facto border or Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China will be instrumental. It can cautiously observe military movements, infrastructure development, and border operations along the LAC, allowing for close scrutiny of unexpected force deployments or construction near disputed areas such as Aksai Chin or Arunachal Pradesh. The APSS will provide an early warning system that helps prevent escalating military action near Pangong Lake or Galwan Valley during times of increased tension or border standoffs, similar to the Doklam crisis.

In the maritime realm, it will maximise maritime security by maintaining surveillance on naval movements, port activities, and potential maritime threats. China's naval activities in the South China Sea, including the creation of artificial islands, patrols, and territorial claims, can be monitored by APSS. This promotes regional stability by ensuring transparency and discouraging aggressive behaviour. APSS can also monitor maritime lanes and detect threats to critical locations like the Malacca Strait. Unusual naval maneuversmanoeuvres can be rapidly identified for investigation, allowing India and other regional parties to react appropriately.

Iran's security concerns

With regard to Iran's security concerns and the monitoring of its nuclear program, the APSS can perform a crucial part. NATO can get accurate and most recent data regarding Iran's nuclear facilities, missile testing sites, and other strategically significant infrastructure. APSS's early detection capabilities are exemplified through its ability to identify anomalies or irregularities.

APSS can maintain an alert eye on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), an underground uranium enrichment plant in Iran. APSS data can act as an alert, prompting the IAEA to conduct additional investigations. Similarly, APSS monitors the Parchin Military Complex, a facility with a history of nuclear weapon-related experiments. By highlighting any unexpected movements or construction activity for inspection, APSS ensures transparency in this situation.

Challenges to APSS

APSS will confront challenges as Earth's orbit becomes increasingly crowded with satellites and space debris from various countries and private companies. As a result of the congestion, there is a greater chance of accidents and interference, which could have an effect on APSS operations. Because APSS relies on satellites for data transfer and communication, it is susceptible to hacks, jamming, and other forms of interference from enemies. To challenge NATO's influence and presence in space, China under BRI is collaborating and coordinating with other space actors, including Russia, India, Iran, and Turkey.