2 yıl önce

US intelligence: Russia preparing full-scale Ukraine invasion

The invading force could take the capital Kiev and topple President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a matter of 48 hours, officials say citing US intelligence assessments.

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Ukraine is not a NATO member but receives US and allied military support and training.

Russia is stepping up preparations for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine and has now put in place 70 percent of the forces it would need for such an attack.

US officials have warned that the assembled Russian force on the frontier with Ukraine is growing at a rate that would give Russia's President Vladimir Putin the force he needs for a full-scale invasion - some 150,000 soldiers - by mid-February.

These officials in recent days gave briefings to the members of US Congress and European allies.

As to the timing of an invasion, the ground is expected to reach peak freeze around February 15, the officials said, allowing for off-road mechanised transit by Russian military units.

Such conditions would continue until the end of March.

That timeline and the growing number and capability of Russian forces close to Ukraine could suggest the window for diplomacy is shutting.

The officials said Putin wants to have all possible options at his disposal: from a limited invasion of the pro-Russian Donbas region of Ukraine to a full-scale, all-out invasion.

Russia denies that it is planning to invade Ukraine.

If Russia does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kiev and topple President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a matter of 48 hours, the officials said.

Thousands may die

Russia has assembled 110,000 troops along its border with Ukraine but US intelligence had not determined if President Putin has actually decided to invade.

Such an attack would leave 25,000 to 50,000 civilians dead, along with 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian ones.

It could also trigger a refugee flood of one to five million people, mainly into Poland, the officials said.

Two weeks ago, a total of 60 Russian army battalions were positioned to the north, east and south of Ukraine, particularly in the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed after an invasion in 2014.

But on Friday, there were 80 battalions and 14 more were en route from elsewhere in Russia, US officials said.

They added that some 1,500 Russian special forces soldiers known as Spetsnaz arrived along the Ukraine border a week ago.

Russia has also announced what it calls joint military manoeuvres with Belarus, where it has sent several battalions to the north of Kiev and in the Brest region, not far from the border with Poland.