Experts warn climate crisis could exacerbate Nile dam tensions

For years, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan have been locked in a bitter dispute over the Nile dam, which Addis Ababa has been filling without reaching a binding deal with both downstream countries.

The African neighbours have so far used diplomacy to settle the trilateral water dispute without a breakthrough, but experts say the existing risks could be exacerbated if a severe climate crisis event — like the ones that battered Pakistan, Western Europe and North America this year — hits the region.

"The challenge [for downstream countries] would be during the drought seasons that are expected to arrive in a couple of years," Khalil Al Anani, a senior fellow at Arab Center in Washington DC, told TRT World.

Anani said both Cairo and Khartoum "depend heavily on the Nile for most of their fresh water and without a binding agreement with Ethiopia on the operation of the GERD [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam], conflicts might arise".

GERD, a $4 billion hydropower project with an estimated capacity of more than 6,000 megawatts, is crucial to powering Ethiopia’s economic development.

The dam is under construction since 2011 on the country's Blue Nile — a most significant tributary of the Nile River — and Addis Ababa started filling the reservoir behind the dam two years ago.

In August, Ethiopia completed the third phase of filling the reservoir. At the time, its Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said: "When we set out to build a dam on the Nile, we said from the beginning that we did not want to make the river our own."

He said the dam prevents sedimentation and "it will reduce the amount of wealth and human lives lost in downstream countries due to floods.”

Stressing Ethiopia is keen to resume the African Union-sponsored talks between the three countries, PM Abiy warned "any other option will not stop what we have started and will be futile."

Cairo and Khartoum consider the dam a serious threat to their vital water supplies.

Both the neighbours fear their water needs won't be met in the event of Ethiopia getting full control of the water flow and when drought disrupts the rainfall pattern.

"Prolonged drought years on the upstream might force Ethiopia not to release the water from the reservoir to meet the needs of Egypt when needed," Ashok Swain, chairperson of the UNESCO on International Water Cooperation, told TRT World.

"Ethiopia doesn't take the water out of the river system but rather fills the water in the dam's reservoir, giving it the upper hand if the climate crisis disrupts the rainfall pattern in the basin for a long period," he said, adding the scenario will ultimately leave Egypt and Sudan vulnerable.

Egypt continues to reel under the water problems. In 2007, the water scarcity in the country resulted in the "Revolution of the Thirsty" protests. By 2025, Egypt is projected to become completely water-scarce.

Sudan, also a water-scarce country fears Ethiopia's dam could impact its own hydroelectric projects.

To Ethiopia, the construction, filling and operation of the GERD are sovereign rights that cannot be disputed or compromised.

Sudan and Egypt want a binding agreement but Ethiopia says any pact should be advisory. The downstream neighbours have tried to rope in the US, United Nations, and European Union into the dispute, irking Ethiopia, which seeks dialogue through the regional bloc African Union only.

READ MORE: Ethiopia completes third filling of Renaissance Dam on Nile

UN won't help unless military conflict erupts

All sides have tried to reach an agreement in the past. They also signed the Declaration of Principles in 2015 but it didn't help settle the transboundary water dispute.

Although downstream countries have the right to protest upstream countries' actions, the importance of the protest is entirely dependent on the nature of ties between the duelling countries, experts say.

In this case, the relationship between Egypt and Ethiopia drastically changed over the past decade when Cairo started to lose its dominance over the basin, particularly after the 2011 Arab Spring.

Recently, Egypt wrote a letter to the UN Security Council, seeking its intervention in the dispute. Its Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry warned at the UN General Assembly speech "whoever thinks that adhering to peaceful means to settle water disputes is a form of weakness is mistaken."

"Egypt's constant protest at the UNSC won't make a significant change to the situation since the UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses has not been signed by any of the three countries while it allows Ethiopia to equitably and reasonably utilise the shared water," said Swain, an environmental conflict expert.

"By bringing the matter before the UNSC makes no difference when its 'veto' carrying members have very different views over upstream countries' rights and obligations."

Al Anani said the UN would only intervene if the dispute turns into a military conflict, which is highly unlikely.

He said both downstream countries should make more efforts to reach a binding deal by lobbying great powers such as the US, China, and Russia, something that also has a slim chance of working due to the dispute between these powers.

"The divisions among these powers make it difficult to lobby them," Al Anani said. "Egypt and Sudan are in a weak position vis-a-vis Ethiopia."

Egypt and Sudan have been claiming "historical rights" to the waters of the Nile River but the current dispute's roots are entrenched in the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty of 1929.

Ethiopia, on the other hand, says it's not bound by any of the colonial treaties, arguing that they gave Egypt absolute rights over the Nile.

"Historical rights are not absolute. The UN Convention clearly allows equitable water use and it also gives it priority over historical rights," Swain said.

Ethiopia building the dam is thus seen by experts as Addis Ababa's answer to unfair colonial treaties.

READ MORE: Egypt hosts five-partite Arab summit

Possibility of swap deal

With negotiations stalemated and tensions rising, the idea of a regional conflict still exists. But there are many reasons that make it very unlikely to happen.

"Firstly, Sudan has never been clear and straightforward on its position regarding the dam, so the conflict primarily stays between Egypt and Ethiopia," Swain said.

"Secondly, it is very unlikely that any military operation could stop the dam from operating. The amount of water in its reservoir itself is a protection to the dam."

Also, if somehow Egypt strikes down the dam, the amount of water rushing downstream would be catastrophic for Sudan, he said.

This has led experts to believe that a swap deal could end the dispute  — a deal that could guarantee energy to Ethiopia and water to Egypt.

"Egypt needs water while Ethiopia needs energy. If the three countries can come to get a joint power grid and Egypt and Ethiopia agree to swap water with energy during prolonged drought seasons, the agreement is very much a possibility," Swain said.

He said the dispute can be resolved if "basin countries follow the examples of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, who signed an agreement over the Parana River projects in 1979 after a long period of bitter conflict over the Itaipu Dam upstream."

"There is a need for the political will."

But Al Anani said Ethiopia, with its strong position, is not obliged to agree to such a deal.

"Ethiopia doesn't see a necessity to sign a binding agreement or to reach a deal with Egypt. It views GERD as a strategic advantage that would bolster its regional role. Hence, it won't give concessions," he said.

READ MORE: Ethiopia rejects call by Egypt and Sudan for UN action on Nile dam