How the postponement of Nigerian elections could affect the polls

When Nigeria’s presidential election was postponed on February 16, it was not warmly received by the masses. It is not the first time something like his has happened. In 2011, the parliamentary election was moved forward and in 2015, the presidential election was shifted up by two weeks. Unlike the current reaction, agitation was minimal. 

“Following a careful review of the implementations of the its logistics and operational and the determination of the conduct of free, fair and credible elections…proceeding with the elections as scheduled is no longer feasible,” said, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), on the morning of February 16. 

However, the body charged with organising the elections does not seem to connect any cost to its actions. If it did, it was not reflected in the press release announcing the postponement.

Counting the cost

On February 14, James Okoye left the north with his family of six. He had resigned to vote in the upcoming elections in eastern Nigeria because he fears the polls might lead to violence in the country's north. “I did not want to risk violence,” he said. “The north has a terrible history with post elections violence.” 

Okoye was not alone in his decision. Election periods in Nigeria often involve a lot of movement locally and internationally for a lot of reasons. 

Most northerners feel safer voting from their hometowns to avoid being trapped in electoral violence; and so also are southerners. Therefore, people mark out the calendar and move, despite the large distances involved. 

Okoye had planned to return on Sunday. It would not just be safe for his family but would also coincide with his job which resumed on Monday 18. When the news of the postponement reached him on Saturday morning, he was terrified. 

The journey back to Kano, like most in the northern state, takes nearly two days by road  from his own state in the south. He had registered in his hometown and was only eligible to vote there as required by Nigeria’s electoral laws. 

But with the postponement, he could either stay back and risk his job, or return to Kano and miss the vote altogether. 

It was a straight choice for Okoye. “I can’t risk my job to vote,” he said, justifying his decision of travelling on the evening of Saturday back to Kano in northern Nigeria. “The government can’t even create a job for me if I do.” 

That’s one voter lost.

The delay also has larger ramifications. For instance, Nigeria's economy has suffered a huge hit since the polls were shifted, resulting in a week- low fall in stocks. 

The local economy, according to the Director General of Lagos Chambers of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Muda Yusuf, lost about $1.5 billion due to the election postponement. The partial and total shutdown of business, including the closure of borders "means the different outputs of the economy for a whole day are practically gone", he told local outlet. 

People are expected to bear other heavy personal losses around planned important events. 

In Nigeria, weekends – especially Saturdays – are used for ceremonial and traditional events such as burials and marriages. Last week, thousands of such events had been put on hold for the elections and some moved to the upcoming Saturday, with invitations sent out and plans wrapped. 

This is dangerous, not because of its scale but numbers. A simple wedding event in Nigeria can easily involve 500 people because Nigerian ceremonies don’t just involve the immediate families, it ripples through to various communities connected to that single family in many extended ways. 

Cost aside, many potential voters criticised the timing of the postponement. It came just five hours ahead of the polls opening, at a time when a lot of international observers, journalists and stakeholders had arrived, booked hotels and spent deeply into their budget. 

Chances are very few were prepared for it because INEC had constantly parroted its preparedness even a few hours before the postponement. By the time the news came, Nigeria was sleep, the shock was disarming and many to-be-voters ran into problems and solutions, except not voting at all, were limited.

Torturing a fragile democracy

Over 84 million voters are expected to take part in the elections, nearly half of Nigeria’s 180 million population. It is expected to be a narrow and fierce contest between President Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar, the top opposition candidate who is also well known in Nigerian politics and had served as the country’s first democratically elected vice-president from 1999 to 2007. 

Not everybody is unhappy with the postponement of the elections. Some public commentators have commented that Nigerian democracy is still fragile and growing; claiming that it was a fairer outcome to postpone the elections in the interest of free and fair elections.  

It is a learning curve rather than a setback, they had argued. And if the progress is sustained, the future holds much for the growth of democracy in Africa’s largest economy. 

Few Nigerians will see it that way. The reason is simple. The majority of Nigerians – due in part to education and poverty -  share a shallow look at politics and long years of corruption and failure in governance means that only a few retain the ambition to uphold the system. 

The atmosphere in the build up to this year’s elections inspired hopes of a turnaround in politics but the shift seems to have repressed that enthusiasm sharply. Not only were people willing to vote, they also took huge risks, endured high costs and showed patience just to secure the permanent voters card, PVC, against a thoroughly frustrating system.   

Generally, voters’ attitudes to electoral laws and practices are quite rigorous in Nigeria and not many Nigerians are prepared to take the road of uncertainty again. What this means is that people don’t necessary feel motivated to believe that the postponement counts towards the progress of the country’s two-decade old democracy. 

 After all, INEC – the leading electoral body - had four years to prepare for the vote. It also had time to observe the glitches with logistics and report to the public with feedback earlier. In fact, it had all the money – roughly 700 million dollars – approved for the elections which have now been moved to Saturday February 23. 

Even the events of the night in which the elections were postponed: the late deployment of electoral material, poor provision for staff welfare and security, plus tug attacks on electoral officers as reported unofficially across some centres, show Nigeria is far less prepared to host elections then indicated. In the end, the so called ‘logistics’ limitation could be an ambiguous term shrouding general incompetence. 

The winners and losers

There are many ways of looking at the effect of the postponement of the general elections. Primarily, the central focus has to return to over 80 million registered voters in Nigeria who have made a lot of sacrifices to be part of a system that naturally stirs disinterest. 

Among Nigerian potential voters are who have a predictably fragile political will that is, sometimes motivated by past and present experiences. Many don’t believe in the government, the voting system and or even the Nigerian nations. 

So it is not ordinary Nigerian voters who might likely benefit from the shift. 

After all, it is clear is that many Nigerians have suffered losses either in businesses or works or personal relationship. But how quickly can these losses transform to apathy? Like Okoye, many potential voters can’t risk more other than staying away from the elections. And as expected, some would walk the rope but certainly not all for the new date.

More narrowly, the Southern Nigeria – which seems to be a stronghold of the opposition, especially, eastern Nigeria is likely going to be the most affected. The Nigerians of the east are ordinarily the most travelled and are more easily motivated to travel for safety during the votes. With work, business and family at risk, not too many might rate voting at all cost this second time. 

In any case, not much can be said for certainty about how the postponement can help local politics and citizens, except that it’s not a good news for Nigerian democracy.  No system, experts suggest, can grow by being unstable and inconsistent. Maybe, this year’s elections will witness the highest apathy in the history of Nigeria democracy. 

And without voters, what is a free and fair elections?