US-Russia tensions over Ukraine orbit into space

For decades, both the US and Russia have worked together as part of the International Space Station (ISS), setting aside their differences to jointly benefit from the station as a home and unique space laboratory for astronauts and cosmonauts. 

ISS cooperation between the US and Russia has overcome past geopolitical tensions, including the more recent Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 that resulted in the crowning of the ISS as a post-Cold War detente symbol between the two states. 

But now, this long standing collaboration is going through a huge test after NASA announced that it's seeking new options for operating a Russia-free ISS, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Kathy Lueders, NASA's top official for the spaceflight program, stated during a press conference on Monday that operations on the research platform were moving “nominally”.

Question marks about the partnership of cosmonauts and astronauts arose shortly after US President Joe Biden's statements on sanctioning Russia that also targeted the country's high-tech and aerospace industry.

"We estimate that we'll cut off more than half of Russia's high-tech imports. That will strike a blow to their ability to continue to modernise their military. It'll degrade their aerospace industry, including their space program," Biden said in a White House address outlining new sanctions on February 24.

War of words

The statement prompted a strong rebuke from Dmitry Rogozin, director-general of Russia’s Space Agency, Roscosmos and former deputy prime minister of Russia. 

In a tweet thread, Rogozin set forth the co-dependency card between Russia and US over ISS as it splits into two sections, the US Orbital Segment, and the Russian Orbital Segment.

“Do you want to destroy our cooperation on the ISS?” he questioned on February 24 right after Biden's remarks.

The ISS relies on a Russian system to hold its orbit, some 250 miles (400 kilometres) above sea level, while the US segment is liable for electricity and life asset systems.

“If you block cooperation with us, who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled deorbit and fall into the United States or Europe?” Rogozin continued with a menacing manner, hinting that the station does not fly over Russia much compared to the US and Europe. 

NASA immediately responded to de-escalate the tension by underlining that it "continues working with all our international partners, including the State Space Corporation Roscosmos, for the ongoing safe operations of the International Space Station."

“No changes are planned to the agency’s support for ongoing in orbit and ground station operations,” it also added in a statement.

Musk's SpaceX as a trump card 

SpaceX founder and the wealthiest man on the planet, Elon Musk, waded into the battle by replying to Rogozin's question on ''Who will save the ISS?''.

On February 26, Musk shared the SpaceX logo on Twitter signalling that SpaceX Dragon capsules could fill any gap left by Russia.

In recent years, NASA has been trying to reduce its reliance on Russian rockets to send its astronauts into space. It has been using Russia's Soyuz rockets for launches for many years but has started to use SpaceX rockets in recent years.

But is it possible to imagine an ISS without Russia?

Russia-free ISS?

According to some experts, it is unlikely as the station was constructed with joint dependencies.

“It would be a huge technical challenge to continue the International Space Station without the Russian contributions,” Voyager Space president Jeff Manber stated while adding that it would be very costly, presumably to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.

Moreover, Julie Patarin-Jossec, a French academic and author of a book on the ISS, pointed out that the astronauts and cosmonauts at the ISS are highly qualified professionals, and unlikely to be affected by world politics that would cause a conflict on their cooperation and joint research. 

But most importantly, she highlighted the fact that withdrawing Russia from the ISS program would leave it without a crewed space program and this would potentially increase its possibility of joining China on its Tiangong space station, which is still under construction. 

This would be an unfavourable outcome for the US due to its competition with China.

Nevertheless, Lueders stated that for now, they are not getting any indications at a working level that Russian counterparts are not committed to cooperating.

But US Congress might change course as the future of the ISS relies on Congress for approval with or without Russia. 

In this sense, according to Manber, Rogozin's recent comments could face congressional scepticism.

“If he continues to put out on Twitter political comments toward this current situation, it might elevate the space agencies into the political arena. And Congress might look at this and say: ‘Why the heck are we working with this agency’?”.

While the ISS is staffed with professionals who are not traditionally beholden to political whims, the Ukraine crisis could bring the station to a crisis point. 

"I would think that unless the current situation gets resolved quickly, that could affect the Russian desire to stay involved, or the US desire to keep them involved," said John Logsdon, a professor and space analyst at George Washington University.