Murat SofuogluChinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Cairo as China and Egypt marked 70 years of diplomatic ties, shortly before a possible meeting with US President Donald Trump in late September.
The visit came amid renewed regional tensions, with US forces attacking IRGC targets and Tehran retaliating by attacking American bases across the Middle East.
Egypt, which has been largely silent on US-Iran tensions, condemned recent Iran attacks on Arab states.
During the visit, Xi and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi called for a “comprehensive agreement” to end the war with Iran and signed more than 20 agreements. They included a deal allowing Beijing to complete the third phase of a joint industrial zone at the Suez Canal, expanding China’s economic presence along one of the world’s most important trade routes.
Cairo and Beijing have a significant economic relationship, with bilateral trade reaching close to $21 billion, as the two countries have linked Egypt’s Vision 2030 with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
“There is a clear economic interest on both sides, especially given the current circumstances in the region,” Altay Atli, an expert on Chinese politics and a senior scholar at Sabanci University’s Istanbul Policy Center, tells TRT World.
He highlighted both states’ growing concerns that the war in Iran has stalled global trade because of tensions in the Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz straits.
Egypt, whose economy depends heavily on Suez Canal trade, has been concerned that pro-Iranian Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb have disrupted shipping across the Red Sea, reducing revenues.
Burdened by deep structural debt, the Egyptian economy has long been vulnerable to regional conflicts like the current Iran-US war.
China, a major consumer of Gulf oil, has also been concerned about the Iran conflict, as blockades across the region’s two key straits have disrupted global energy shipments.
“While the anniversary provided the occasion for the visit, the deeper issue is a shared interest in regional stability,” Atli tells TRT World, referring to possible Egyptian-Chinese cooperation to ensure regional stability across the Middle East.
Why Egypt matters
Despite Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed more oil tanker traffic towards the Suez Canal, making the waterway even more strategically important at a time when China is increasing its investment there, according to Atli.
Egypt could also help China deepen its engagement not only with Arab states but also across Africa, given Cairo’s involvement in several regional conflicts, including those in Palestine, Sudan and Libya.
“In that sense, Egypt offers China geography, markets, and political legitimacy at precisely the moment Beijing wants a larger Middle Eastern role,” Dania Thafer, the executive director of Gulf International Forum, a Washington, DC-based research institute, tells TRT World.
Atli also highlights Egypt, the most populous Arab state with good relations with both China and the US, as “a potential point of convergence” between Washington and Beijing.
“Egypt is continuing to diversify its partnerships, bringing in Chinese investment and cooperation without giving up its relationship with the United States. And China, for its part, seems quite comfortable being one partner, but a very important one, among several, rather than trying to pull Egypt exclusively into its camp,” says Atli.
While Egypt has substantial economic ties with China, it remains the second-largest recipient of US military aid, receiving roughly $1.3 billion annually, while pursuing a foreign policy of “strategic balance.”
“For Xi, engaging such a close US partner allows China to demonstrate that deeper relations with Beijing do not require governments to formally abandon Washington,” says Thafer.
This balancing act between the two great powers may also be one reason for Xi’s visit to Cairo ahead of his possible late September meeting with Trump.
China wants to guide Cairo “to lead from the center” because Beijing supports “an architecture that develops in concentric circles,” says Dan Steinbock, a geopolitical analyst and international economist.
“Egypt could serve as the maritime anchor of this new architecture, preempting interference in regional choke points,” Steinbock tells TRT World.
That potential role also carries a message for Washington.
Kadir Temiz, director of ORSAM, an Ankara-based Turkish think tank, believes that “Xi’s Egypt visit might also be a coded message to the Trump administration that if the US can not secure regional stability, China and its Middle Eastern partners can offer an alternative order based on regional autonomy.”
‘Regional autonomy’
The meeting also came at a time of what Atli describes as “a broader regional trend”, with several Middle Eastern countries exploring a shift away from reliance on the US security umbrella toward a more regional security architecture, as reflected in the recent Mecca Agreement between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
“Xi’s four-point proposal with its emphasis on greater regional ‘strategic autonomy’ fits into that trend. Notably, China did not name either Iran or the United States in this proposal,” says Atli.
He refers to the Chinese leader’s call for Middle Eastern countries to be “the masters of their own affairs”, oppose external interference and pursue regional dialogue on peace and security.
“Xi’s proposal is based on the idea of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. That echoes the basic thinking behind the Mecca Agreement, which is that countries in the region should rely less on outside security guarantees and do more among themselves,” Atli says.
But Atli also stresses that the Mecca Agreement and Xi’s Cairo proposal are “very different things”, noting that the former is a defence pact with concrete commitments, while the latter rests on a much broader diplomatic and economic framework.
“China is trying to position itself as a complementary player in this emerging regional environment, rather than trying to create or join an arrangement like Mecca.”
Cairo was also part of a quadrilateral format developed by Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan in the wake of US-Iran tensions, which sought a third way to address regional conflicts.
While Egypt did not join the Mecca Agreement, Ankara expects Cairo could eventually join the defence pact.
“During his visit, Xi explicitly called for Middle Eastern nations to explore a new, independent security architecture and oppose external interference. By echoing the philosophy of the new Mecca alliance, China actively backs indigenous security arrangements run by regional leaders rather than external powers,” Steinbock says.
Thafer also sees parallels between the two approaches, saying that “Xi's Cairo message fits remarkably well with the political logic behind Mecca”.
But she notes that China is not “offering to become the region’s new security guarantor” by endorsing greater regional security autonomy.
“The Egypt-China communiqué does not mention the Mecca Pact or commit China to collective defence,” she says.
“Put differently, China appears interested in helping legitimise a new regional security architecture without underwriting it in the way the US historically has. That distinction is crucial.”
The Mecca Agreement signatories have publicly said the pact is not directed against any particular country and instead aims to develop a regional security arrangement. Most recently, the foreign ministers of the three countries announced the establishment of a Strategic Political and Defence Committee, signalling the agreement's growing institutionalisation.
“It is significant that, prior to his visit to the US, Xi articulated an approach emphasising the importance of regional powers taking ownership of their situation,” Temiz tells TRT World.
“His argument—that countries should take their own initiatives rather than relying on external forces to define the Middle East's security architecture—aligns interestingly with the rhetoric developed by the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani trio.”
Hongda Fan, a Chinese professor and director of the China–Middle East Center at Shaoxing University, also believes Beijing is closely following the heightened tensions in the oil-rich region, adding further significance to Xi's Cairo visit.
“Beijing is certainly paying close attention to cooperation among the major Middle Eastern powers,” Fan tells TRT World.
Beijing has repeatedly expressed support for Middle Eastern countries to “determine their own destiny” and deepen cooperation among themselves, Fan says.
In particular, Beijing encourages “the formation of a security framework by major regional powers that can bring stability and peace to the region,” he adds.
“This aligns with China's interests. A more stable Middle East is more beneficial to China. After all, the realisation of China's strategic goals in the Middle East depends on the cooperation, support, and coordination of the region's major powers.”
