WTO expects potential rebound in global trade for Q2 amidst 'depressed' Q1

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has said global goods trade remained depressed in the first quarter of this year, but added there could be a turnaround in the second quarter.

The world's largest international economic organisation said in a report on Wednesday that the value of its barometer index rose to 95.6 in the latest reading, up from 92.2 in March, but remaining well below the baseline value of 100.

This suggests "a below-trend stabilisation and the beginnings of an upturn in merchandise trade volumes," it said, adding "the road to trade recovery may be bumpy."

The volume of merchandise trade in the fourth quarter of 2022 was down 2.4 percent, compared to the previous quarter, and fell 0.8 percent compared to the same period in 2021, according to the report.

This was due to factors such as Russia's ongoing offensive in Ukraine, high inflation in advanced economies, and tighter monetary policy by central banks around the world.

"The easing of pandemic controls in China starting in December 2022 appears to have boosted port traffic in the country, but this was outweighed by reduced vessel traffic in Europe," the report said.

The WTO noted its preliminary data suggest that the recent pickup in export orders points to an increase in demand for traded goods in the second quarter of this year.