Spain braces for Catalonia's bid for independence

A Catalan parliamentary session on Tuesday evening that will probably include a historic declaration of independence may be met with a harsh response from Spain.

The deepening clash between Catalan separatists and Spanish authorities is set to play out in the regional session. 

What's on the agenda? 

Catalan president Carles Puigdemont hasn't revealed the precise message he will deliver at a 16:00 GMT (6:00 pm local time) sitting. 

But separatist politicians have said they expect a declaration based on the results of the disputed October 1 independence referendum.

Separatists declared that the pro-independence victory in the vote was valid. It was followed by mass protests of Catalans who were angered by heavy-handed police tactics.

Puigdemont's speech follows a ruling from Spain's Constitutional Court on October 5 that suspended the planned session on October 9.

Over the weekend, large-scale pro-union rallies were held across Barcelona.

How will Catalan's government enforce a declaration? 

At stake is the territorial integrity of Spain, threatened by a growing separatist movement that is sorely testing the strength of its constitution and the skill of its national and regional leaders.

Some expect a strictly symbolic declaration, while others believe a risky full-scale break with Spain will be attempted, even as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy vows he will use all lawful means to keep Spain intact.

The Spanish leader has said he is willing to use a constitutional clause that allows Madrid to take over direct control of regions if they violate Spain's constitution – a move that could apply in this case because Spain's constitutional court had suspended the referendum.

Its results are therefore considered invalid under Spanish law.

"Spain will not be divided and the national unity will be preserved. We will do everything that legislation allows us to ensure this," Rajoy told German newspaper Die Welt. "We will prevent this independence from taking place."

Challenges to Catalan independence

Puigdemont's embrace of independence may be slowed by the decision of several major banks and businesses to move their headquarters out of Catalonia because they want to remain under the European Union's regulatory umbrella, and also by the bloc's backing of Spain despite a police crackdown on people trying to vote in the referendum.

The Spanish government's staunch opposition, the lukewarm response of the international community to the prospect of a breakaway state in Europe and the concerns of business leaders all suggest an independence move would extract a heavy price from Catalan's separatist leaders.

Still, separatist politicians say there will be a declaration of independence for the northeastern region of 7.5 million people during the Tuesday session, although some ruling coalition lawmakers say the move could be simply "symbolic."