What’s next for Iran after a conservative landslide victory in Parliament?

Iran witnessed a resounding victory by conservative hard-liners, with far-reaching implications set to impact diplomatic efforts with the US.

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Feb. 23, 2020.
AP

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Feb. 23, 2020.

At its heart, the conservative electoral victory will likely see Iran's withdrawal from previous commitment to the failing ‘JCPOA’ nuclear deal, as Iran continues to struggle economically, a direct fallout of the US sanctions imposed by President Donald Trump. 

Hamed Tabei, a political officer in Iran’s Ministry of Youth and Sports spoke to TRT World about the ‘resounding success’ Iranians had achieved with the election results.

“Iran finally has the chance to break free of international webs of control and redefine its stance as it wishes. This has been long in the coming,” says Tabei.

Conservative groups loyal to Ayatollah Khamenei and the theocratic revolutionary ideals of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution won in the Friday vote that saw a staggeringly low turn-out.

But the election was about more than entrenching the rising right within Iran. It also signified walking back policies adopted by President Hassan Rouhani, who was unable to strengthen Iran’s economic standing, despite dealing with international players. 

Lingering ghosts

The dominant conservative vote was likely swayed by the US killing of top IRGC General Qassem Soleimani a month ago in January. But even if it wasn’t, the Iranian Guardian Council went to extreme measures to disqualify a broad swathe of moderate and centrist candidates from running in the parliamentary elections. 

The result? A record-low 42.5% turn-out, and a tamed parliament controlled by Khamenei, following moderate Rouhani’s four-year term, and an equally balanced legislature. This makes it the first time since the end of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency in 2013 that conservatives have come to power.  

Voters found limited options on the ballot, with over 7,000 potential candidates been disqualified, most of them reformists and moderates. Ninety disqualified candidates were sitting members of Iran’s 290 member parliament. 

The Friday elections were swayed in favor of conservatives well before public protests erupted against the government in what would witness the harshest crackdowns since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Human rights groups estimate that nearly 300 were killed in the protests.   

New rhetoric, same challenges

Khamenei has won deep popular support by weaponizing the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018, while lashing out at European members of the pact for uniting against Iran. 

His plan? A rapid shift to a “resistance economy”, that would rely less on imported goods, and utilize Chinese and Russian technology transfers and investments. 

But sanctions are only partly responsible for an economy plagued by low productivity and weak private sectors. Ultimately, the conservative parliament will have to face the same challenges their predecessors grappled with: how do you fix an economy, and where do you draw the line between international politics and bad economic policy?

Filibustering galore

With a conservative parliament in power, Rouhani will likely fight an uphill battle to pass any meaningful legislation in his term’s final year. This includes efforts to impeach ministers such as Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, as well as laws seeking to reconcileIranian anti-terrorism banking policies with international standards.  

Iran may already be paying for its conservative victory however. The Financial Action Task Force announced that Iran’s banking system will be black-listed again, after failing to pass key laws that would bring it in tune with global counter-terrorism and anti-laundering standards.

Conservative hardliners have stalled Rouhani’s bills for years, and with a conservative-majority in parliament the bills may be entirely dead in the water.

Upcoming elections

Friday’s legislative elections are expected to have far-reaching implications for Iran’s presidential elections. 

With a conservative opposition in power, Rouhani is likely to be denied foreign policy success in his last year or outright sabotaged to ensure weakened moderates ahead of 2021 elections. 

Meanwhile, conservative parliamentary figures are already planning to use their victory as a springboard to presidential elections, with Rouhani ineligible for a third term. 

Former Tehran mayor Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, also a former IRGC general won the title of parliamentary speaker, and most popular candidate in the capital, with over 1.2 million votes. He’s expected to play a major role in upcoming presidential elections.

While low voter turnout is interpreted due to mass disenchantment, many say they stayed home due to concerns over the coronavirus’ spread in Iran on the rise. With diplomatic and economic isolation, the virus threatens to isolate Iran further; and a disenchanted majority with them.

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