Eastward ho! How Europe is increasingly turning its back on US-led West

Europe has been a significant geopolitical player on the world stage for centuries – from the rise and fall of empires to the formation of nation-states and the creation of the European Union (EU).

Recently, there has been a growing discussion about whether Europe is turning from West to East and what this might mean for the continent and the world.

The historical divide between Europe’s West and the East dates back to the Cold War era. The divide was based mainly on political ideologies, with Western Europe associated with democracy, capitalism, and the United States.

In contrast, Eastern Europe was associated with communism and the Soviet Union. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union ended this divide, and many Eastern European countries moved closer to the West, joining NATO and the EU.

However, in recent years, there has been a shift in this trend, with some Eastern European countries – such as Hungary, Bulgaria, and Belarus – moving closer to Russia and China.

This shift is partly driven by economic interests, as Russia and China have become important trading partners for many Eastern European countries, and partly by geopolitical considerations, as these countries, especially Bulgaria, seek to balance their relations between the West and the East.

One example of this shift is Hungary, which has moved closer to Russia and China in recent years, despite being a member of the EU and NATO. Hungary has been critical of the EU’s policies on migration and has been accused of undermining the rule of law and democratic institutions in the country.

Hungary has also been building closer ties with Russia, including constructing a new nuclear power plant with Russian technology. Similarly, Poland has been making more intimate relations with China, including signing a strategic partnership agreement in 2019.

This shift towards the East has raised concerns among Western European countries and the US, who see it as a threat to the unity and security of Europe. They argue that countries moving closer to Russia and China are becoming vulnerable to the influence of these countries and may be compromising their values and democratic institutions.

There are also concerns about the potential impact on the transatlantic relationship, as the US sees Europe as a critical ally and partner.

However, others argue that this shift towards the East is a natural development and may even benefit Europe. They point out that the EU and NATO have expanded to the point where they are perceived as a threat by Russia, leading to a more confrontational approach by Russia towards the West.

By building closer ties with Russia and China, Eastern European countries can reduce tensions and promote regional stability. These countries argue that this shift may help to rebalance the global order, which the West has dominated for centuries.

The implications of this shift towards the East for Europe and the world are complex and multifaceted. On the one hand, it may lead to greater regional cooperation and stability. On the other hand, it may also create new fault lines and tensions within Europe and between Europe and the United States.

It may also have broader implications for the global balance of power as the world becomes increasingly multipolar, with China and Russia emerging as influential players on the world stage.

One potential consequence of this shift towards the East is the emergence of a new Eurasian bloc consisting of Russia, China, and several countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

This bloc represents a significant challenge to the existing Western-dominated world order and could reshape the global balance of power. It could also lead to the fragmentation of the EU, as some Eastern European countries prioritise their relations with Russia and China over their ties with Western Europe.

Ukraine conflict and Europe’s eastern tilt

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has strained relations between Europe and Russia and between Europe and the US.

While the US has taken a more hardline approach towards Russia, some European countries like Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Hungary are still Pro-Russia and have been more cautious, particularly those heavily dependent on Russian energy supplies.

This has created tensions between the US and Europe, particularly over issues like the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. The conflict has also raised questions about the future of the transatlantic relationship, with some experts suggesting that the Trump administration’s apparent ambivalence towards NATO and the EU has weakened the alliance and undermined US leadership in Europe.

The conflict has also contributed to a sense of insecurity and instability in the region, with Russia seeking to establish a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. The dispute has highlighted the complex and often competing interests of different European countries and has raised questions about the future direction of European foreign policy.

The question of whether Europe is turning from West to East is a complex and multifaceted one. While a number of Eastern European countries have been building closer ties with Russia and China in recent years, the trend is common, and many Eastern European countries remain firmly aligned with the West.

The implications of this shift for the continent and the world are still unclear, and risks and opportunities are associated with it.

Ultimately, the future direction of Europe will depend on a range of factors, including political, economic, and security considerations, as well as the choices made by individual countries and their leaders.