How Iran cleverly avoids direct confrontation with the US

Despite the heightened tension in the Middle East, Iran and the United States have demonstrated considerable caution and avoided any direct military confrontation.

While Tehran is constantly seeking to deepen its regional influence, it has made it evident that it doesn’t wish to pick up a fight with the United States or Israel.

What’s more interesting is that even as thousands of people have been killed in Gaza, and Iran-aligned Houthis are in the line of fire, Washington and Tehran have refrained from crossing each other’s red lines.

Here are key points, which define this uneasy calm between the United States and Iran.

Proxies do the job

It has been 100 days since Israel started its military assault and a ground invasion of Gaza in which more than 24,600 Palestinians have been killed, most of them women and children.

Despite the constant anti-Israel rhetoric coming from its leaders, Iran has not stepped into the fray.

Instead it has used its proxies to launch periodic attacks on American and Israeli targets. But many of these attacks have been symbolic and haven’t done anything to deter Israel from scaling down its attacks.

Clearly, Tehran doesn’t want this conflict to escalate.

A slower pace on the nuclear road

Before the Israel's war in Gaza broke out, the United States and its key allies in Europe were focused on containing Iran’s nuclear programme.

Tehran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes such as producing electricity. But the US officials fear Iran might use the centrifuges to enrich weapons-grade uranium.

Recently, Tehran shored up production of highly enriched uranium, raising fears that Iran is on its way to making a bomb.

Yet Iran continues to play the balancing act by not crossing the red line that could give an excuse to the United States and Israel to target its nuclear facilities.

Israel also plays along

On January 2, Israel killed Saleh al Arouri, the deputy chairman of Hamas's politburo, in a high-precision strike in Beirut’s suburbs.

Clearly, this was aimed at avoiding any escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border where Iran-backed Hezbollah is active.

This must be viewed in the backdrop of reports that the administration of US President Joe Biden has held secret negotiations with Hezbollah and Israel in an attempt to prevent a wider war.

The retaliation that never happened

This latent understanding, where Tehran and Washington appear to go to the brink of a war but never cross the line, is not new.

After the United States assassinated Qasem Soleimani, commander of the elite Quds Force in Iran's Revolutionary Guard on the orders of former US President Donald Trump, Iran vowed extreme retaliation. But in the end, it walked away after a few strikes on the US interests without causing any significant damage.

That’s interesting because within Iran, Soleimani has attained the status of a saint and Iranian officials continuously eulogise his services.

On January 3, more than 100 people were killed when Daesh attacked a procession of thousands of people heading to Soleimani’s mausoleum.

Tehran has even shown restraint in its response even in the cases where Israel has carried out a campaign of sabotage within Iran.

In the last few years, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and assassinated top nuclear scientists. But each time Tehran has lobbed verbal tirades at Israel instead of actual rockets.

Iran's deepening influence

Over the past four years, Iran has significantly strengthened and trained its proxy forces, equipping them with new weaponry.

Despite the aggressive rhetoric of Iranian leaders, a full-scale war does not align with the country's interests.

After the US coalition strikes on the Houthi infrastructure in Yemen, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi expressed support for the Yemeni group, describing it as "brave, powerful, and fearless" and a defender of the "oppressed people of Palestine".

But Raisi did not commit Iran to doing much, limiting the response to a statement: "If the people of Islamic countries are given a chance, you will see armies ready to go to Palestine."

It should be emphasised that groups from the so-called “axis of resistance,” including the Houthis, are often used to pressure Israel and the United States, while Tehran tries to ensure that such attacks do not morph into a full-scale war.

It should also be noted that the actions of the Houthis have shown their ability to significantly influence world trade. In particular, problems have arisen for companies such as Tesla and Volvo, which use the Red Sea shipping route.

Moreover, more than 20 million barrels of oil per day are transported through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for about 20 percent of global consumption.

Following a joint operation by the United States and the United Kingdom against the Houthis, the price of oil rose by more than four percent within hours. Iran benefits from a higher oil price.