Modi government's violent crackdown will not end India’s farmer protests

In scenes reminiscent of the 2020-2021 mass protests, tens of thousands of Indian farmers are leading a protest march to New Delhi, demanding higher prices for their crops and guaranteed debt waivers.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling BJP government has refused to meet any of these conditions since the last protests were called off two years ago.

Today, over 250 farmer unions are marching together to press the ruling leadership on ironclad guarantees. "Last time, they fooled us, but this time we won't be fooled. We will not return until our demands are met,” said one of the protestors, according to the Reuters news agency.

Indian authorities have responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and a beefed-up security presence in the capital, all designed to keep protestors from exercising their right to assemble and protest in peace.

Increased police violence is unlikely to end protests or put a stop to future demonstrations. Instead, such a confrontational approach could backfire on the BJP for several reasons.

First, denial of assembly confirms limited government desire to address deep-seated grievances among farmers. Together, they constitute a crucial population segment with significant political influence ahead of the elections.

Indian farmers enjoy considerable sway in the countryside and represent a formidable force within an agricultural sector that is responsible for employing nearly half of the total workforce.

Violent clashes and arbitrary arrests enable Modi’s embattled opposition to build on public anger and underscore violations of constitutional rights.

Past attempts at confrontation have also backfired on Modi: two years ago, the government was forced to concede to key farmers’ demands on agricultural reform laws.

Violent crackdowns had pushed the aggregate death toll beyond 600 then, making it clear to the government that another major confrontation was out of the question.

As a result, repeating that playbook is unlikely to yield a favourable outcome for Modi or the tens of thousands of farmers marching their way to the capital.

If anything, an escalating crackdown will ensure that major issues of contention remain unresolved.

That includes the farmers’ core demand for a minimum support prices (MSP) mechanism. MSP is a necessary buffer for Indian farmers to navigate increased price volatility and sudden market fluctuations through better state support.

Rounds of talks have been held between unions and government officials so far, but none succeeded. Future attempts face a similar fate unless the BJP gives MSP legal force just months before the general elections.

Prospects of a legally-binding MSP appear grim. For one, speedy legislation demands a race against time for the BJP, and a lengthy consultative process is central to any broad-based consensus for protesting unions.

Second, Modi’s government is keen to avoid any overblown impressions of favouritism or partisanship towards one specific voting bloc, further weakening the case for an acceptable and enduring compromise in months.

Despite these constraints, BJP’s glaring attempts to frame the farmers’ demands as a security issue risks intensifying the agitation further. It also brings Modi’s already contentious relationship with a key voting bloc under further stress.

India’s paramount leader is in the process of courting key voting blocs ahead of the country’s general elections this year, where he is widely expected to secure a rare third term in office.

Part of his government’s strategy is to avoid antagonising any major bloc that enjoys significant political heft at the grassroots. The sheer size of India’s farmers and the inclusion of dozens of protesting unions in the Delhi march make it imperative for his government to reach a negotiated consensus and prevent any violent fallout.

The space for rhetorical assurances is also shrinking fast: Modi has already fallen short of his promise to double farmers’ incomes from 2015 levels, leaving scores of farmers exposed to the rigours of stagnating incomes and heavy debt.

The Hindu nationalist leader is determined to mount a success narrative around India’s economic transformation and has consistently appealed to government welfare schemes as a major selling point for his re-election bid.

By marginalising protesting farmers and their demand for legal guarantees, Modi risks contradicting his own campaign messaging.

"Now the time has come to raise a voice [in support] of 620 million farmers," said Mallikarjun Kharge, president of the main opposition Congress party on X, stressing full support for the movement. "Will not be afraid, will not bow down!"

A majority of India’s population remains deeply dependent on agricultural income for livelihoods, and farmers represent the lifeblood of that sector.

The lion’s share of Indian farmers have less than two hectares of land, face largely stagnant incomes, and have struggled to secure ambitious levels of investment and debt relief once promised by the BJP.

By fortifying the capital with barbed wires and choking major access points into the centre, Modi’s government has sent a dangerous message to millions watching: that peaceful demands can serve as due cause for escalation rather than an opportunity for consensus-building.