What Pakistan’s elections could mean for the US and the West

On February 8, millions of Pakistanis will head to the polls to vote the next administration into power. It has been a long and exhausting wait for the South Asian nation.

For months, human rights groups and international monitors have cast doubt over the integrity of the polls, pointing to the exclusion of Pakistan’s largest political party and excessive curbs on media freedoms. Plenty suggests a departure from "free and fair" elections next week.

Pakistan failed to hold elections in mid-November last year, and its most popular party – Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) – is effectively barred from campaigning in full-swing.

Days before the February vote, PTI chief and former Prime Minister Imran Khan, a staunch critic of the United States, was handed two separate jail sentences on allegations of corruption and leaking state secrets.

Pakistan’s Election Commission and its top court are also under significant pressure from parties to ensure a "level playing field" for all, following an increase in arbitrary arrests and perceived institutional partisanship. The West, led by the United States, has significant stakes in how the election unfolds and what comes next for Pakistan.

For Washington, the polls could offer an opportunity to temper perceptions of political meddling in Pakistan.

Bilateral ties have been strained since the vote of no confidence was passed against ousted premier Imran Khan in early 2022, prompting him to blame the US for influencing the vote and leading a "regime change" conspiracy against his government.

That narrative gained traction with Khan’s voter base, shot up his approval rating, and has helped maintain public scepticism of US policy intent.

Though Pakistan’s National Security Committee found no evidence of a US conspiracy, a secret cable published by The Intercept confirmed US pressure to remove Khan, damaging public credibility further.

The February elections make it possible for Washington to engage with a coalition that is less suspicious of its motives. After all, Khan faces disqualification from polls, and his party is in no position to contest as a united front.

This gives a boost to the center-right party Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which is now positioned as the frontrunner to secure one of two outcomes in the February vote: win the general election or land a hefty stake in any ruling coalition.

Three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was disqualified by Pakistan’s top court after the Panama Papers case sparked additional investigation into his assets, is the face of a resurgent PML-N. Sharif is back from a self-imposed exile in London, and has been exonerated from major corruption charges following, what his critics say, was a rapprochement with the military. With his harshest critic behind bars, Sharif faces little opposition to his election bid and is keen to revive PML-N’s fortunes.

These changing dynamics could offer a sigh of relief for Washington. PML-N was part of Pakistan’s last ruling coalition – the multiparty Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) – which prioritised a broad "reset" in US-Pakistan relations. PML-N also operated in lockstep with Pakistan’s security establishment to help refocus priorities on bilateral trade and counterterrorism.

Interestingly, the stakes are much higher this time as Pakistan struggles to cope with one of its worst economic crises in history. This is a reality that could increase Washington’s post-election leverage over Islamabad.

For instance, Pakistan depends heavily on US support and goodwill to attract billions of dollars in emergency funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The current $3 billion IMF lifeline is set to expire in April, making it critical for any incoming government to enlist US support to secure a longer-term loan.

Shrinking foreign reserves, soaring inflation and dwindling growth add to Pakistan’s post-election pains, and demonstrate the extent of US influence through international financial institutions. As recently as July 2022, Washington played a pivotal role in swift loan dispersals to Pakistan to help avoid a default.

That leverage is likely to strengthen as major political parties struggle to offer workable solutions to end Pakistan’s dependence on IMF funding. Their election manifestos offer little relief. "(Pakistan) will remain dependent in the next few years on successful IMF programme implementation and official support," said Fitch Ratings in a recent forecast.

As the election nears, it is abundantly clear that many Western countries – including the European Union (EU) – have done little to dispel fears of pre-poll rigging and election manipulation.

Brussels remains reluctant to send a full election observation mission to Pakistan. The EU has offered limited clarity on how a select group of observers will compel Pakistani authorities to "ensure" fair and comprehensive elections.

Either way, inaction from the West continues to weigh heavily on Pakistan’s election process. Scores of party leaders continue to report obstacles to public campaigning in the country’s most populous province of Punjab, while others face political intimidation and arbitrary arrests.

All this contradicts Western and US commitments towards ensuring a truly transparent and credible election environment in Pakistan. In a recent press briefing, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller insisted that Washington values "democratic principles, human rights, and the rule of law" in Pakistan.

But the Biden administration has shown no real willingness to challenge increased press censorship in the country, or demand an end to excessive use of force against political opponents.

Thus, without tangible pressure to reform, the West has undermined the importance of the 2024 polls and what it means for Pakistan’s democracy. Expect greater US leverage over Pakistan’s economy and long-term efforts towards a US-Pakistan reset, even if public sentiment is rooted in Western scepticism.