What’s behind Macron’s anti-US outburst and why his sudden love for China?

The US has overreached its stature in Europe, and France’s age-old arrogance of cultural and historic superiority is set to challenge American dominance in Europe and call upon a revival of European nationalism.

Observers of European affairs pointed to Macron’s recent anti-US comments as France’s “left field” approach, as it is called in the world of sports. Alternately, it’s called the ‘French flair’ – the unpredictability in approach, as sticking up the contrarian viewpoint is sometimes just as important as the French identity itself.

However, the unpredictability was missing from Macron’s latest anti-US outburst. In Europe, at least, France is keen on moving away from the US. With his comments on not towing the US line about Taiwan, Macron pointed to the sun setting on American hegemony in Europe.

Over the last year, both the EU and its largest economy, Germany, individually announced China as the next big player, alongside the US.

Macron pointed out the threat to Europe becoming a “vassal” of the US, just like former France president Jacques Chirac called out the preceding arguments to the Iraq war, and De Gaulle pulled France out of NATO in 1966.

Macron’s comments mark a clear shift in priorities, but he also has revenge on his mind. He said that Europe “should not be caught up in a disordering of the world and crises that aren’t ours”.

Macron’s yearning that Europe must not get involved in US fights, and should aspire to become a third powerhouse alongside Washington and Beijing, was widely acclaimed by Chinese media. There’s also a broad hint that France will likely object and ignore any further US sanctions on China concerning Taiwan or weapons sales to Russia.

At the core of Macron’s frustration is the US-Australia submarine deal. Australia, which had previously contracted a French submarine manufacturer to the tune of $50 billion for multiple submarines, cancelled the deal overnight in favour of US nuclear submarines in 2021. The French foreign minister cried betrayal and said that his country had been stabbed in the back.

Adding to French anger over the loss of the submarine deal is Europe’s over-reliance on US military technology.

Macron criticised the German-led European Sky Shield project for which the French-Italian air defence systems were apparently shunned in favour of the US Patriot missile system. France and Italy have therefore refused to join the German-led initiative. The French President instead called for greater European sovereignty in developing its own missile systems for the EU’s joint security strategy.

Macron’s criticism of the US and appeal to European nationalism is also etched in the Ukraine war and America’s call on Europe to “do more”. This is becoming a serious political issue in Europe as a deeply entrenched narrative takes hold - the US has benefited from the Ukraine war, while Europe, its economy, industry and people have suffered.

A glance at the IMF’s economic projections for France is dire just 0.7 per cent GDP growth versus the US, where the economy is set to grow by 1.6 per cent.

China offers hope

With a total trade of just $87 billion, there’s more room to improve France’s commercial relationship with China, but that would only happen if China manages to evade any further US sanctions.

In the book Backfire, former French treasury official Agathe Demarais imagines how a direct US run-in with China would likely force European companies to stand by Washington and ditch Beijing. “In such a situation,” she writes, “many European businesses might not be able to survive.”

But Paris also wants to preserve its own geopolitical influence. With China’s economy set to grow by 5.2 percent, public pressure in France could easily force the government to unilaterally go against US interests and focus on French interests in its dealing with the world.

That’s why France is resisting a US-led radical decoupling with China.

If Macron’s recent trip to China is anything to go by, there is a real promise of increasing trade between the two countries. Macron signed “several economic agreements involving major companies in sectors such as transport, energy, agriculture, culture and science,” reads a statement from Elysee Palace.

One of the biggest deals would see a doubling of the production capacity of A320 models at French aircraft manufacturer Airbus’ Tianjin factory.

Also, French energy giant EDF renewed its agreement with the Chinese nuclear power producer to build new nuclear power plants.

Plus, there is yet more room to joint invest in China’s fast-growing electronic vehicle industry, overtaking Germany’s famous car manufacturers.

What remains clear is the transatlantic relationship needs more balance. Macron’s anti-US comments weren’t unpredictable but carefully measured.

The tide is turning in Europe for the US. And treating the EU like an irrelevance, whether cutting France out of AUKUS or pushing to intensify the conflict in Ukraine, isn’t going to help Washington either.