Xi’s Europe trip meant to ‘create more distance’ between EU and US

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s five-day European tour this month brought him to France, Serbia, and Hungary. Xi seized the opportunity to share Beijing’s vision for a less West-centric world and discuss trade, Ukraine, and other issues with policymakers in Paris, Belgrade, and Budapest. One of his main objectives was to mitigate the damage in China’s relationship with the European Union against the backdrop of trade-related frictions.

This tour, which marked Xi’s first visit to Europe since 2019, highlighted the importance of Beijing’s bilateral relationships with these three countries. Each visit was important.

“The three countries are perhaps the most China-friendly in the whole continent. The trip [was] about good ties, so the choices [were] deliberate,” said Yun Sun, co-director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, in an interview with TRT World.

France

In Paris, Xi met with French President Emmanuel Macron and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Xi and Macron signed 18 deals spanning a host of domains from green development to aviation and agriculture.

Important to China are France’s “strategic autonomy” concept and the fact that Paris’ views on international issues are sometimes at odds with those of Washington. Chinese policymakers “see that this strategic autonomy could be a way to drive a wedge between France and the US,” Mathieu Droin, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former official at the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, told TRT World.

Yet, Beijing might have some misconceptions about France’s calls for strategic autonomy given that France “remains committed to the Transatlantic bond, especially through NATO” and that Macron is keen to play the “European card,” said Droin. This is why Macron invited von der Leyen to join him in Beijing last year and why she was with the French president during Xi’s visit to Paris this month.

“While China is trying to bilateralise to tackle each relationship [from] a position of strength, the fact that France is playing the European [card] makes this endeavour much more complicated for Beijing,” added Droin.

Important to the French leg of Xi’s European tour were the discussions about Ukraine and alleged Chinese support to Russia in the form of dual-use technologies, microchips, and drones. According to Macron, whose Ukraine foreign policy recently became much more hawkish, Xi conveyed that Beijing is not a party to the conflict.

“Macron said that he had lengthy discussions on the topic and that he was reassured from what he had heard from Xi. So, there is no clear outcome of what could be the consequences if it happens that there is clear evidence that China is supporting the military enterprise of Russia,” Droin told TRT World.

“But clearly it was an opportunity at least for Macron to at least show that he is doing his best to address what is one of the main concerns of those who are the most concerned by the war in Ukraine.”

Serbia

Serbia, which is outside of the EU and NATO, has a special relationship with China. Sharing some of the same values such as respect for sovereign equality and non-interference, Belgrade stands out among European capitals for how warm it is toward Beijing.

Beijing sees Serbia as a country where China’s leadership and citizens can always count on a very welcome, explained Nikola Mikovic, a Belgrade-based foreign policy analyst. “Most Serbs, according to recent polls, have a positive view on China, and see the People’s Republic as a friendly country.”

Sino-Serbian relations are critical to Belgrade’s quest to diversify its global partnerships in pursuit of an increasingly independent foreign policy. This month, Xi visited Belgrade on the 25th anniversary of the US bombing China’s embassy in the Serbian capital — an event that still fuels Chinese and Serbian distrust of the West.

Given that Serbia was one of only three European countries that Xi visited “bears great significance and serves as yet another proof of the iron-clad friendship between Serbia and China,” Nemanja Starovic, Serbia’s Minister for Labour, Employment, Veteran and Social Affairs, told TRT World.

Officials in Belgrade are pleased with the outcome of Xi’s visit, which was his second to Serbia. While the Chinese president was in Belgrade, the two countries signed 28 agreements, which promised to bolster the comprehensive strategic partnership between Serbia and China. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic affirmed his country’s support for the One China policy, and he discussed a host of global issues with Xi.

A significant part of the discussions between the two leaders concerned Sino-Serbian economic cooperation. There are many Chinese investments in the Serbian economy in production facilities, bridges, highways, and railways. Serbia’s trade with China greatly contributes to its overall economic performance and policymakers in Belgrade are optimistic about a free trade agreement between the two countries, which comes into effect in the middle of this year.

Serbia serves as a 'natural highway’ connecting Asia Minor with Central Europe,” Starovic told TRT World. He pointed to the current construction of a high-speed railway connecting Belgrade and Budapest, which serves as “part of a wider rail corridor connecting ports in the Aegean with Central Europe” and China is involved in heavily.

China views Serbia as a new strategic hub in the Balkans that can strengthen Beijing’s geo-economic clout. “Since Serbia is not an EU member—and is unlikely to join the bloc anytime soon, if it all—Beijing uses the opportunity to achieve some of its economic goals and increase its presence in the strategically important country,” offered Nikovic.

“We are profoundly grateful to our Chinese friends who recognised Serbia as a great springboard for positioning on the European markets, and, unlike some others, we will never turn our back on China in a political sense,” said Starovic.

According to Nikovic, the signing of bilateral agreements in the media and culture sectors means that China could, “to a certain extent, increase its ‘soft power’ in the Balkan nation surrounded by EU and NATO members.”

Hungary

The Hungarian leg of Xi’s tour was important given Beijing’s view of the country as a “gateway” into the EU. Indeed, Hungary is the EU’s most China-friendly member, which made Xi’s first visit to this country extremely important.

China is the largest foreign investor in Hungary, and officials in Budapest realise that Hungary desperately needs such investment. While Xi was meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Orban this month, the two countries signed 18 new agreements, including one Memorandum of Understanding about nuclear cooperation.

Sino-Hungarian relations must be interpreted within the context of the “opening to the East” strategy that Orban announced in 2010 and has pursued ever since, according to Wolfgang Pusztai, a senior adviser at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy.

“Chinese companies receive tax relief, subsidies, and support in dealing with the authorities. CATL, the world's largest electric vehicle battery manufacturer, operates in Debrecen, its largest production site outside of China,” he told TRT World.

Some view Hungary as China’s “Trojan Horse” within the EU, and this must be considered in the context of Orban taking over the Presidency of the Council for six months beginning on July 1. Given the Hungarian prime minister’s record of blocking EU decisions that are critical of Beijing, there is much for China to gain from Orban taking on this role.

“However, Budapest will certainly need to realise—maybe the hard way—that it still needs Berlin, Paris, and Brussels even more than Beijing,” added Pusztai.

The wider picture

It is no coincidence that Xi visited these three countries in his first European tour of the post-Covid era. France, Serbia, and Hungary have also, to various extents, signalled disapproval of Washington’s role in Europe. For Beijing, Xi’s visits to Paris, Belgrade, and Budapest were, in part, aimed at creating some more distance between the EU and the US while trying to convince the European bloc to refrain from adopting increasingly anti-China stances.

Xi hoped that his tour this month will demonstrate to the Europeans the real benefits that can come through deeper relations between their countries and China. Nonetheless, the reality is that there remain divisions within the EU vis-à-vis China and while Beijing’s relationships with France, Serbia, and Hungary are set to improve, trade-related tensions between Europe as a whole and China are not going anywhere.