Analysis: Macron's erratic Gaza policy needs a closer look

It’s been a rocky two months for French President Emmanuel Macron, who seems to be having trouble picking a side when it comes to the conflict in Gaza.

Following the October 7 attacks by Hamas, Macron - and his Western counterparts - declared unconditional support for Israel.

The Eiffel Tower lit up in the colours of the Israeli flag, and France even initially banned pro-Palestinian demonstrations to “maintain public order.” In some cities, police deployed water cannons and tear gas to disperse protesters who defied the ban.

However, as the number of Palestinians killed in Israel's war on Gaza began to rise, Macron started calling for a humanitarian truce, which later evolved into a sharp demand for a ceasefire.

“These babies, these ladies, these old people are bombed and killed. So there is no reason for that and no legitimacy. So we do urge Israel to stop,” Macron told the BBC in November.

Supporters of Macron say his change in course makes sense, given the growing humanitarian disaster in Gaza.

But critics say his approach has been erratic at best, and seemed more like an effort to try out different messaging to see what would take.

They point to Macron’s proposal in October to form an international alliance to fight Hamas, an idea that was poorly received by Arab and Western nations. Some also called his pledge of $107 million (€100 million) in humanitarian aid for Palestinians at a Paris conference in November as merely “wishful thinking.”

One analyst seeking to unpack Macron’s motives took a pragmatic approach. In an op-ed for Internationale Politik, French author Joseph de Weck said the key to understanding French-Israel relations is the idea of opportunity.

“Unlike Germany’s policy, which is above all guided by a historical imperative, France’s Israel policy has been more opportunistic, driven by changing geopolitical and economic interests in the region.”

He quoted Macron as saying, “We have told Israel that we support your security, because your security is not only your business.”

Indeed, fighting in the Middle East has previously spurred tensions in France, which has the world’s third-largest Jewish population (after Israel and the US), and the largest Muslim population in Western Europe.

Some critics say Macron should be more mindful of this dynamic before he speaks.

Emmanuel Dupuy, the president of the EU Institute for Prospective Security, recently accused the French president of engaging in “regatta diplomacy,” steering in different directions - or saying different things - to please the person he happens to be speaking to at the moment.

In an interview with the MENA Research & Study Center, Dupuy warned that this approach has repercussions both abroad and at home:

“It's clear that at demonstration after demonstration, two Frances are clashing. The France (that) supports the Palestinian cause and the two-state solution. And the France that denounces anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism, which is a reality. And so theoretically, what should not be opposed, the two-state solution and the support and right of Israel to exist, has become a polarisation that is expressed, for the moment, not violently on television or in the street.”

Challenging Israel’s narrative is also imperative, some critics say.

Some two months into Israel’s bombing campaign on Gaza, 17,487 Palestinians have been killed and nearly 50,000 are reported injured. Almost all 2 million people living in Gaza have been displaced.

Israel has thus far refused calls to quell the bloodshed, prompting Macron’s sharpest rebuke yet. Speaking this month, he said:

"We are at a moment when Israeli authorities must more precisely define their objectives and their final goal: the total destruction of Hamas, does anyone think it is possible? If this is the case, the war will last 10 years. There is no lasting security for Israel in the region if its security is achieved at the cost of Palestinian lives and thus of the resentment of public opinions in the region.”

But asking questions is not good enough, journalist Ramona Wadi said. In a recent op-ed in Middle East Monitor, she exhorted the global community to do more to protect Palestinians.

“If Israel continues refusing to articulate its objectives which are obvious to anyone, what will world leaders do? Will the international community endorse the lie about going after Hamas while calling upon Israel to protect the colonised Palestinians from colonial violence? History, and not only that of Israel – France can look at its own colonial trajectory – proves that colonial entities do not protect the colonised.

Macron should stop asking rhetorical questions and step away from such hypocritical hyperbole and his rhetorical questions that are as deadly as Israel’s bombing of Gaza.”