ICG: European Union should continue path of diplomacy on eastern Med

A report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) has urged the European Union to continue down the path of diplomacy in mediating tensions between Greece and Turkey.

The recommendations come after the ICG, an organisation seeking to prevent and resolve tensions around the world, spoke to decision-makers from Turkey and Greece, who are cautiously welcoming a chance to sit and resolve tensions in the eastern Meditteranean.

“For the time being, European leaders’ shuttle diplomacy has yielded welcome signs of de-escalation,” said the ICG report while warning that relations are at “watershed moment”.

While the ICG believes that the situation between Greece and Turkey “could yet spin out of control” it urges European leaders that placing sanctions on Ankara in a bid to contain it “risks having the opposite effect.”

Turkey has recalled the Oruc Reis survey vessel from the eastern Mediterranean for “maintenance”.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that “The Oruc Reis will return to mission after its maintenance is over and will resume its works [sic] in the same fashion,” however, the steps taken have also been widely interpreted as a chance to allow negotiations to succeed.

Moreover, advisers from Greek and Turkish leaders are in contact with each other and both sides are meeting at NATO headquarters in a bid to find a formula for de-escalation in the eastern Mediterranean.

France, Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration are attempting to push for sanctions against Turkey at the European Union level. The move, however, risks angering Ankara and could result in the long term deterioration of relations between the EU and Turkey. 

Tensions in the eastern Mediterranean have flared as Turkey, Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration vie for control of territorial waters and battle over who owns the rights to explore the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).

In November of last year, Turkey signed an agreement with Libya that delineated their respective EEZ. The move angered Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration who felt that this impinged on their territorial waters.

Ankara, for its part, believes that the claim of Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration is spurious. It has argued that the Greek islands, which are several hundred kilometres from the mainland, can not generate their own EEZ.

Moreover, Turkey has argued that the EEZ is not just about who is able to explore the potential mineral riches below the sea, but also, ensuring its national security and the need to have access to open waters.

The ICG also acknowledged Ankara’s concerns in the eastern Mediterranean.

“Turkey feels ganged up on and increasingly hemmed in by the hundreds of Greek islands dotting the seas around its coast. It fears being cut off from most of the Aegean and therefore key maritime routes should Greece unilaterally extend its territorial waters and establish new maritime jurisdiction zones,” said the report.

Greece has already threatened to extend its territorial waters from six to twelve miles around islands in the Aegean Sea, a move which has been condemned by Ankara and potentially threatens Turkish trading and naval ships.

The unilateral move by Greece has only confirmed Ankara’s fears that its economic and national security in the region should be left to the goodwill of Athens.

The ICG noted that the EU’s approach towards Turkey is still unsure and pulled in different directions by hawkish members in the bloc and moderates.

“Like the UK...they [the EU] are wary of alienating a NATO ally and a partner that, despite tensions, they wish to encourage in its stuttering ambitions for closer integration with the bloc,” noted the report.

Going forward, it remains to be seen whether the EU can finely balance the strategic alliance it has with Turkey and the short term power plays of its members.

However, the report encourages the EU to give negotiations a wide berth, and that punitive measures could result in a dramatic breakdown of relations with long term consequences for both sides.