What Iran achieved with attacking Israel

About two weeks after Israel allegedly killed seven of its nationals, including a military commander, in an air strike on its consulate in Damascus, Iran retaliated by sending UAVs into Israeli territory.

This marked a pivotal movement in the Iran-Israel shadow war. It was the first direct attack carried out by Tehran on Tel Aviv.

Israel's consistent targeting of Iranian military leaders across the Middle East, notably in Syria, has become a norm over the years, although the Jewish state has always shrugged off responsibility.

Iran's overnight retaliation on Saturday, which involved 300 drones, and dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles overnight did not cause any heavy material or human damage in Israel but made international headlines.

A majority of Iranian projectiles were intercepted outside Israeli borders, with only a few reaching their intended targets. For Iran, the counterstrike was good enough to be passed on as revenge for the killing of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the highest-ranking Iranian military commander to be targeted since the killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani, who was hit by a US drone strike in 2020.

With this seemingly restrained yet historic attack, Iran’s ruling elite managed to excite the conservative support base back home, presenting the manoeuvre as a sign of Tehran’s growing influence in the region.

Regional proxies

The clandestine war between the two powers has long played out through proxies in the Middle East. Iran now has shown its commitment to those proxies with its attack, experts say.

The Damascus consulate attack has placed Iran in a challenging position vis-à-vis its allied militias, according to Sami Hamdi, editor-in-chief of the International Interest and commentator on MENA.

Speaking to TRT World, he explains that Tehran has exhibited accountability to these allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, reaffirming its commitment to them and signalling readiness to escalate on their behalf if Israel or the US violate established norms of engagement.

Iran challenged the traditional global focus on its proxy forces, including Hezbollah, and Houthi militants, according to Serhan Afacan, a researcher at the Institute of Middle East and Islamic Countries at Marmara University.

“‘Look, I can operate directly in the region without relying on any of them’, Iran said, showing that it can handle its affairs and engage in conflict in the region independently,”Afacan tells TRT World.

Message to the US

After Iran's attack, the US declared its abstention from engaging in offensive operations against Iran but reaffirmed its support for Israel. Tehran also cautioned Washington that endorsing Israeli retaliation would result in the targeting of US bases.

Opting not to label Iran's attack as a "retaliation" in its entirety, Afacan suggests that Iran's message was not purely retaliatory this time, but rather a warning that it could retaliate with a more symmetric move if the US fails to restrain Israel.

“This move demonstrated that although the US has little issue with Israel committing a genocide in Gaza, it does have a major issue with Israel trying to force a regional war with Iran,” Sami Hamdi says.

Dependent outcome

Iran sought to demonstrate its military prowess by launching a collective attack with its homemade arsenal, aiming to counter frequent humiliations by Israel, dispel perceptions of weakness domestically and internationally, assess its military capabilities and vulnerabilities, and highlight potential consequences for neighbouring countries considering opening their airspace in a full-scale conflict with Israel.

Despite achieving these successfully, the final outcome of this attack will be subservient to the nature and scale of Israel's response, according to Adem Yilmaz, researcher at Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (INALCO).

“If Israel does not deliver a strong response to this attack, it is possible to say that Iran has largely achieved its objectives. However, if the situation could escalate into a full-scale war, it could lead to the destruction of Iran's fragile economy, the loss of gains in the region, particularly in Syria, and internal crises,” Yilmaz tells TRT World.

He adds that the most vital issue for Iranian officials has been to ensure the continuity of the current order and to avoid drawing a war into Iran that would weaken the regime.

Internal implications

While both sides may appear content with their gains, with Iran responding to an offensive and Israel showcasing its ability to defend itself, while also diverting attention from its bloody war on Gaza, Afacan believes that Tehran will not emerge as the profitable party in the medium and long term.

He emphasises that Iran's first direct attack on Israel was in response to Israel's offensive, not instigated by Iran itself, and this could diminish its effectiveness to mere symbolic gestures of power and conveying abstract messages.

Khamenei attempted to leverage this action for political gain domestically by utilising propaganda tactics, Afacan says, “but it will not have a significant, lasting impact.”

"Yes, during the early years of the revolution, slogans like 'Death to America, Death to Israel' were ubiquitous on the streets of Iran, but the context has since shifted."

Some experts, however, believe that this attack on Israel partly fulfilled expectations and was enthusiastically welcomed on the streets of Iran.

“While nearly all of the missiles and drones sent did not reach their targets, the 45-year-long anti-Israel rhetoric has finally turned into action. Crossing this threshold under Khamenei's leadership will further enhance his charisma among supporters,” says Yilmaz.

Strategic expectations

Immediately after firing UAVs from its soil directly into Israeli territory for the first time, Iran's missions to the UN have unequivocally stated that the matter is "concluded." However, Iran also says that its regional strategy has permanently changed now.

If Israel continues its attacks, the Tehran government will perceive existential threats, potentially leading to a nuclear response, Alam Saleh, a lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Australian National University, tells TRT World.

Israel is widely suspected of being behind the deaths of numerous individuals linked to Iran's nuclear program, including its leading nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

For years, Israel has levelled accusations against Iran, claiming its desire to obtain nuclear weapons, while Tehran refutes these allegations.