Unipolarity to end, multipolar order to usher uncertainty: Munich report

The world is entering an era of heightened tensions and uncertainty as it shifts from US-led unipolarity toward multipolarity, according to a new report by the Munich Security Conference.

The Munich Security Report 2025, set for official release ahead of this week's conference, notes that while the future remains unclear whether dominated by US-China rivalry or evolving into a broader multipolar system the process of “multipolarisation” continues to gain momentum.

“Today's international system shows elements of unipolarity, bipolarity, multipolarity, and non-polarity. Yet an ongoing power shift toward a greater number of states vying for influence is discernible,” the report states, highlighting the rising influence of BRICS nations and regional powers such as Türkiye and Qatar.

“Political and economic liberalism, which shaped the unipolar post–Cold War period, is no longer the only game in town. It is increasingly contested from within, as demonstrated by the rise of nationalist populism in many liberal democracies,” the report states.

“But it is also challenged from without, as evidenced in a growing ideological bifurcation between democracies and autocracies, as well as in the emergence of a world in which multiple order models co-exist, compete, or clash,” it adds.

The report suggests that Donald Trump’s return to the White House could accelerate this shift, signalling the end of “Pax Americana.”

It notes that Trump views the current international order as unfavourable and would likely prioritise US interests and China containment, potentially straining relationships with allies.

Perceptions of multipolarity

As the world shifts from US-led unipolarity toward multipolarity, perceptions differ sharply between citizens of Western industrialised nations and those in emerging powers of the Global South, according to the report.

A Munich Security Conference survey found that most respondents in G7 nations view the shift with concern, fearing it could increase disorder and conflict, making it harder to reach global agreements.

When asked if a multipolar order would bring a more peaceful world, the survey revealed negative sentiment across G7 nations: France showed minus 7 percent net agreement (meaning 7 percent more respondents disagreed than agreed), Germany minus 9 percent, Italy minus 11 percent, and Japan showed the strongest scepticism at minus 20 percent.

By contrast, majorities in BRICS countries saw multipolarity as a path to a fairer, more just, and peaceful world. The survey found that most respondents in China, India, South Africa, and Brazil believed a multipolar system would better address the concerns of developing nations.

Trump presidency

Asked whether “a multipolar world would better address the concerns of weaker/developing countries,” respondents strongly agreed: China (50 percent more respondents agreeing than disagreeing), South Africa (45 percent net agreement), India (44 percent net agreement), and Brazil (35 percent net agreement).

The report also notes that a second Trump presidency could further accelerate multipolarisation.

It argues that Trump’s approach prioritising US interests over global cooperation could strain alliances, particularly in Europe.

US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could further accelerate multipolarisation, the report says.

It argues that Trump’s approach prioritising US interests over global cooperation was likely to further strain relations with traditional allies, potentially leading to significant consequences for Europe.

The Munich Security Conference, where the report's findings will be discussed, begins on February 14, bringing together world leaders, top ministers, officials, and security experts from across the globe.

During the three-day conference, US Vice President JD Vance, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will deliver speeches.

Additional speakers include UK's Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, and Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly.

The organisers expect approximately 60 heads of state and government, 150 ministers, and leaders of major international organisations to participate.