Regime makes advances in Idlib as Turkey's Afrin operation continues

As Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch to clear the Afrin region of the YPG militants entered its second day, the Syrian regime continued its incursion into Idlib province, the last urban stronghold of the opposition in northern Syria. 

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the regime had captured the critical Abu Al Duhur airbase and nearby villages in southeastern Idlib on January 20, after a weeks-long offensive supported by Iran-backed militias and Russian airstrikes. 

The airbase falls under the territory previously held by the Free Syrian Army (FSA), who controls Idlib province along with the Al Qaeda-affiliated Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS).

The FSA controls most of the territory, having defeated the regime army there in 2015, with the HTS concentrated in the province’s southwestern and northwestern regions.

Although Idlib is one of the four designated “de-escalation zones”, brokered by guarantor countries Russia, Turkey and Iran, the region has seen continuous fighting. With Daesh defeated from its urban areas in Syria, the regime has shifted its focus to Idlib, where it primarily targets moderate group positions despite they are under the protection of de-escalation agreement.

In accordance with the deal made among Turkey, Russia and Iran, Ankara established four out of 12 planned observation posts, in the north of Idlib near Afrin, as part of its role as guarantor.

The weeks-long bombardment campaign of the regime had forced more than 200,000 people to flee the province into neighbouring Aleppo and Hama, with Ankara warning that the attacks would cause a new wave of migration and urging Russia and Iran, the regime’s guarantors, to rein it is offensive.

The clashes had intensified in the past few days, leading the regime to advance in Idlib, severing the opposition's southeastern stronghold from the rest of the province and connecting regime-held regions of Aleppo and Hama. The regime's main focus is to claim control of the main road connecting Aleppo to Damascus.

It has also been escalating its siege on Eastern Ghouta, where it has been accused of deliberately using starvation as a weapon of war forcing its residents to “surrender or starve”, leaving hundreds of thousands of residents at the “verge of a catastrophe”.

Turkey’s Afrin Operation

With guarantor countries Iran and Russia acting in violation of the ceasefire deals against the Turkey-back moderate groups; and unable to find support for its efforts against the growing YPG threat along its border, Turkey started to prepare for an operation in the YPG-held Afrin province in northwest Syria. 

The YPG is the Syrian branch of the PKK, a designated terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and EU, which has been fighting the Turkish state for more than 30 years.

When the United States announced that it would be forming 30,000-strong “Border Security Force” composed of YPG members along Turkey’s southern border, Turkey’s President Erdogan said that Turkey would respond. 

Turkey, which has been cooperating with Russia in northern Syria, started its operation against the YPG in their Afrin stronghold, which is more closely aligned with Russia, which provides the militant group with diplomatic and political support.

The YPG in northeastern Syria is more closely aligned with the US, which has been providing the terrorist group with arms, heavy weaponry, training, technical and logistical support since 2014. 

On the second day of the operation, President Erdogan said that the operation would not stop with Afrin, and would continue into Manbij, where the US-backed YPG are located, and eventually northern Iraq, to cities like Sinjar, which are controlled by the PKK.