Trump trails in virtually every poll, but can he beat the odds again?

Even though everyone is focused on the night of November 3, more than 57 million people have already cast their votes either by mail or early voting. Nearly 240 million people have the right to vote this year, and voter turnout in the 2016 elections was at 56 percent. 

With less than a week to go until the election, the number of people who cast their votes early in the 2020 election has already exceeded the number who went to the polls early in 2016. Similarly, while 33 million voters cast their votes by mail in 2016, the total number of voters in the current election is already above 70 million.

When we look at donations from last month, we see that Joe Biden received around $282 million, and President Trump received just $81.3 million. Between July and September, the “Biden Victory Fund” received $423 million, while the “Trump Victory Fund” received just $119 million. On the other hand, when we look at the figures in total, it is expected that the amount which will be spent on the 2020 Presidential, Congressional, and Senatorial elections will reach $10.8 billion.

While Trump cast his vote in Florida this weekend, Obama also came to Florida, entering the field to give strong support to Biden. Both candidates are focusing on swing states, which will likely determine the fate of the election, trying to make an impact on undecided voters. 

As neither candidate was able to display the desired performance in the last televised debate, it is still not clear who the 3 percent of undecided voters will vote for, according to CNN's latest opinion poll. 

While foreign policy was not discussed during the debate, the candidates did refer to North Korea, Russia, and China.

The thing the world is curious about the most is whether pollsters in the US will get it wrong again as they did in 2016. When we look at the average of all of the opinion polls between Biden and Trump in the last two weeks, it can be seen that Biden is 8.1 percent ahead of Trump. When we also look at the average of all the polls between Hillary and Trump for the same period, Hillary was shown to be 7.4 percent ahead of Trump. 

Only the LA Times / USC Tracking had said that Trump was 1 percent ahead of Hillary. When we look at the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona, the average of the polls shows Biden to be 3.8 percent ahead of Trump. As Trump knows that he risks losing, he has consistently organised rallies non-stop, visiting two states a day.

If we leave polls to one side, the probability of a Biden victory is very high. I can also say that the Turkish community in America is divided. Turkish-Americans, who are taking into account domestic policy, and that Trump has not been successful, are saying they will vote for Biden. But the Turkish-Americans who are going to vote for Trump want him to win from the point of view of relations between Turkey and the US. 

Erbil Gunasti, the author of GameChanger, whom I spoke to recently, believes that Trump will definitely win, and that if he does he will continue to consider bilateral relations with Turkey and several other powers.

Gunasti says, “this does not mean he will do what they say, or force them to do what he says. He will negotiate with reason and get results. Long story short, international competition and cooperation will gain momentum.” 

Gunasti believes that if Biden wins, he will keep underestimating Turkey, just like the European Union does.

It is clear that if Trump wins, there will be no change in foreign policy, but the policies focused on Israel in the Middle East will intensify. Trump will continue to attempt to resolve the bumpy relations between Turkey and the US, but there will not be any huge crises. 

If Biden wins, he will continue with Obama-style foreign policy. The fundamental issues from the point of view of Turkish-American relations will come to the fore more, and there will be a possibility of reliving Turkish-American relations that marked President Obama's second term.

Even though there is a negative atmosphere towards Biden in Turkey, he does not have the luxury of losing Turkey even if he does win. Let's not forget that the diplomatic channels will remain open, and the two NATO countries will continue to communicate to resolve problems, in an atmosphere where there will be conflicts of interest. 

What is more, we must also not forget that Turkey-US relations enjoyed a golden period during the first Obama-Biden term. Of course, even though Biden himself is saying that there will be some crises, not everything that he has said against Turkey may actually be reflected in the field after he takes his seat in the White House.

However, it goes without saying that there will be serious issues next year surrounding the S-400’s, regardless of whether Trump continues or Biden wins. It will be difficult for either president to avoid sanctions as soon as Turkey activates the S-400s. Indeed, it is extremely clear that the Pentagon, the Department of State, and Congress are against Turkey on this matter.

The fate of the election, and consequently US-Turkey relations, will be determined by the number of delegates gained and the votes of the undecided electors in the swing states. 

In short, Biden is still seen as the favourite in the election, with very little time to go. If, despite everything, Trump does win, he will have beaten not only Biden but also the pollsters, the mainstream media, and social media giants.