Tuncay ŞahinTürkiye could stand to benefit from US tariff hikes that are shaking global markets, according to a report released on Tuesday by the National Intelligence Academy, which carries out research in security and strategy.
The study, titled “US Tariffs in an Era of Global Uncertainty: Strategic Opportunities and Risks for Türkiye”, said Washington’s protectionist trade policies under President Donald Trump’s second term have intensified since 2024, deepening unpredictability in global commerce.
Despite this volatility, Türkiye was identified as “positively differentiated,” facing tariffs around 15 percent—lower than many peers—giving it an edge in key sectors such as defence, automotive, chemicals, and textiles.
The report stressed that Türkiye’s strategic location, young workforce, and competitive costs could help anchor long-term gains if backed by macroeconomic stability, low inflation, and stronger R&D investment.
Expanding export credits, reinforcing trade diplomacy, and prioritising green and digital transformation were listed as essential for securing sustainable growth.
US is at the centre of global instability
According to the report, America’s constantly revised tariffs are undermining predictability in world trade, with ripple effects on growth, employment, and inflation.
While tariffs provide Washington with short-term fiscal revenues, they are expected to hurt the US growth and labour markets in the long run, the academy warned.
It also pointed to mounting tensions between Trump and US institutions, describing them as drivers of uncertainty with global spillover.
China and Europe caught in the crossfire
China, the report noted, has responded with strategic countermeasures, leveraging its dominance in rare earth elements to turn trade into a political weapon. This has reshaped global trade balances while intensifying competition.
The European Union (EU), meanwhile, faces the prospect of becoming “the biggest loser” despite its agreements with Washington, including $750 billion in energy imports and $600 billion in investments pledged by 2028.
These commitments, the report cautioned, could reduce Europe’s bargaining power and competitiveness, leaving it increasingly dependent on US policy choices.
Ultimately, the report said that US tariffs are effectively rewriting the rules of global trade under the World Trade Organization (WTO) framework, forcing mid- and large-sized economies to rethink their strategic positions.
For Türkiye, the report said, this upheaval could provide a rare chance to increase its share of global income—if seized with the right policies.
