Can China replace the US as a research hegemon?

China could surpass the US and the EU to become the dominant voice in global research, according to a new report published this month by research technology company Digital Science.

The analysis– conducted by Digital Science CEO Daniel Hook and VP of Research Futures Simon Porter – coincided with the Chinese Communist Party’s Congress, in which China’s political and economic power was in the spotlight.

But what about its strength in the research domain?

Dr Hook and Dr Porter proposed five key metrics to rank countries’ influence in the world of research – and in each of them, China has either already overtaken its rivals or is close to overtaking them, or has been making a sustained challenge that could see it rise to the top within the next decade or so.

The five metrics, in increasing importance and level of difficulty to achieve, are: percentage of GDP spent on research; Gold Open Access (OA) publication volume; total publication volume; proportion of global citations; and relative global influence.

“If the story of the 20th Century is one of the decline of the power and influence of the West, then the 21st Century tells the story of the ascent of Asia and more specifically China. Indeed, the era in which we live currently, with the cultural and economic dominance of the West, is something of a historical aberration,” the research authors wrote.

Percentage of GDP spent on research

According to the World Bank, Chinese investment in Research and Development (R&D) reached 2.4 percent of GDP in 2020 and is currently second behind the US at 3.45 percent of GDP.  

While the US still outspends China in absolute terms, the gap is narrowing between the two with China spending around 20 percent less than the US. And if the Chinese and US economies continue to grow at their current rates – 3.2 percent for China and 1.6 percent for the US – then China would end up spending more than the US on its current research base by 2032 without the need to increase the percentage of GDP invested.

Gold Open Access publication volume

Advanced research economies usually invest in open models of publishing and research sharing, one of them being Gold Open Access (OA), which makes publications freely accessible from the moment of publication. The open content licenses associated with Gold OA – like Creative Commons licenses – also grant wide-ranging exploitation rights.

The UK has been a leader in Gold OA alongside countries like Australia, Brazil and India. And when it comes to the main blocs – China, the EU and the US – China is expected to nudge ahead of the EU this year when it comes to Gold OA volumes, after it overtook the US in 2017.

Total publication volume

One obvious marker of research development is the total volume of publications.

Sustained high-level production tends to require long-term development of research infrastructure, as well as feeder mechanisms like training for undergraduates, PhD students and postdocs. It also necessitates a vibrant research community and international collaborative opportunities.

At the moment, China is expected to overtake the US this year and also supersede the EU in terms of publication volume.

Proportion of global citations

When it comes to being a preeminent research country, one of the most important markers is whether research is good enough to be cited.

When it comes to the global share of citations, China has moved from single digits in 2000 to 13.5 percent within two decades, which is almost 2 percentage points ahead of the EU now. However, it still remains far behind the US, which attracts nearly 31 percent of global citations.

Still, the trend is China has been steadily increasing its share and the US has steadily been declining for more than 20 years.

Relative global influence

EU countries have been the preferred research partner to work with over the last two decades, placing first alongside strong links with other collaborators like the US, UK and China.

While China is behind the EU, US and UK, it is steadily rising on this metric for more than 20 years while others have either flatlined or declined.

The key for China is that once a country achieves high-quality research at scale, it eventually becomes a destination for collaboration and gains influence in the global research network.

China’s progress against all of these metrics is impressive,” Dr Hook said.

“Within just a few years, China’s influence has developed to a point where it is clear that, if it continues on its current path, within a decade it will have surpassed the US and be vying with the EU-27 for global pre-eminence in its ability to influence the research conversation.”